Jan. 16, 2023

Choosing Your Problems

Current best practices motivate decisionmakers and planners facing complex competitive environments to focus energetically on problem elimination. Practitioners are inadvertently encouraged to frame their goal as an endstate—a set of desired conditions without problems—and to conflate endstate with vision. This problem-elimination thinking creates a situation where real outcomes are confused with idealistic vision. Shining light on cognitive bias in decisionmaking and pushing back against problem-elimination thinking may help decisionmakers avoid the costly decisions and unproductive pendulum swings famously plaguing strategic and policy decisions.

Jan. 16, 2023

The Narrative Policy Framework in Military Planning

It has been stated that in the modern operating environment, whose narrative wins is more important than whose army wins. Additionally, it is posited that now, more than in the past, and especially since the end of the Cold War, “political struggles occur over the creation and destruction of credibility.” If these claims are true, how do planners understand, analyze, and derive successful narratives and incorporate them into military plans?

Jan. 16, 2023

Havana Syndrome: Directed Attack or Cricket Noise?

Havana syndrome cases have been investigated by the CIA, the State Department Medical Branch, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and DOD, among others. There has been less than total information-sharing across the agencies involved. Until there is consensus as to the precise cause of and methods to prevent or treat Havana syndrome, it will likely remain an enigma and health concern for diplomatic, intelligence, and military personnel globally.

Jan. 16, 2023

Assessing the Trajectory of Biological Research and Development in the Russian Federation

In this troubling environment, it is important to understand the range of advanced biological research and current biotechnology investments by the Russian Federation in legitimate areas of biological research and biotechnology development in order to inform an assessment of the sophistication of Russia’s alleged biological weapons program.

Jan. 16, 2023

Executive Summary

The joint force recently lost a quiet giant who not only was one of our nation’s most decorated fighter pilots and generals but also a lifelong learner and teacher of national and international strategy. Founding Joint Advanced Warfighting School Strategy Department Chair, Lieutenant General Charles “Chuck” Cunningham, USAF (Ret.), DBA, flew west, as we aviators say, in November. I am proud to say I was one of Chuck’s wingmen as I throw a nickel on the grass in honor of him.

Oct. 26, 2022

Winners of the 2022 Essay Competitions

NDU Press hosted the final round of judging on May 12–13, 2022, during which 31 faculty judges from 18 participating professional military education (PME) institutions selected the best entries in each category. There were 97 submissions in this year’s three categories—the second most entries ever. First Place winners in each of the three categories appear in the following pages.

Oct. 25, 2022

Information Suppressing Fire: Repositioning Forces in Somalia

For most Americans, the film Black Hawk Down is the first thing that comes to mind when they think about Somalia. Images of destroyed helicopters and dead U.S. Servicemembers being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu are now part of our national memory. Almost three decades later, the Battle of Mogadishu remains one of the most memorable information operations (IO) defeats of the modern U.S. military. Today, America works with the federal government of Somalia to promote stability and to prevent al-Shabaab, an al Qaeda affiliate, from conducting attacks against American interests and the homeland. When Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA) received orders in mid-November 2020 to move all forces out of Somalia by January 15, 2021, the risk of another Black Hawk Down incident was at the forefront of senior leader considerations. Therefore, the main objective of what became Operation Octave Quartz (OOQ) was to safely reposition all U.S. forces in Somalia. Deterrence was critical to mission success.

Oct. 25, 2022

The Strategic Survivability Triad: The Future of Military Medicine in Support of Combat Power

Future conflicts will be complex and will occur in multidomain environments. This problem requires a solution to protect the force. The answer is the deliberate convergence of three existing and distinct overarching medical concepts employed in the chain of survival. These three critical medical concepts combined—henceforward introduced as the Strategic Survivability Triad (SST)—are early intervention, rapid control of noncompressible hemorrhage, and early blood administration. The SST will provide the force with a sustainable capability needed in future conflicts to enable combat power projection, improve survivability, and mitigate risk. In addition, this will provide options for commanders and policymakers in the attainment of national objectives.

Oct. 25, 2022

Pivoting the Joint Force: National Security Implications of Illegal, Unregulated, and Unreported Fishing

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing exploits states, weakens regimes, and presents “one of the greatest threats to marine ecosystems due to its potent ability to undermine national and regional efforts to manage fisheries sustainably.” IUU fishing in Exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and international waters is a facet of Great Power competition; it jeopardizes global security as state and nonstate actors engage in competition and confrontation over an increasingly scarce resource. The IUU fishing industry disrupts sustainable food sources, upsets the already fragile ecosystem, endangers global fishing stocks and food access, creates tensions among nation-states, and threatens geopolitical stability—all of which could lead to armed conflict.

Oct. 25, 2022

Project Convergence: A Venue for Joint All-Domain Command and Control Experimentation

What does the joint force need to do right now to succeed during future conflicts in 2030, 2040, or beyond? The answer is clear: we must experiment together. We must assess the characteristics of the future operating environment (in terms of the physical environment, the threat, and the state of technology). We must develop, test, and refine concepts for how we will operate in that environment. We must also develop and deliver joint capabilities that give our Servicemembers advantage over any adversary in that environment. None of this happens without experimentation. Together, we must learn, fail, learn again, and fail again so that we eventually succeed.