Dec. 1, 2009

Defense Business Transformation

Over the past 20 years, information technology has been rapidly advancing, producing new capabilities that enable organizations to greatly enhance visibility into their business operations. While many private organizations have successfully taken advantage of these new technologies to develop enterprise-wide information systems that reduce costs and improve performance, the federal governments still lags far behind. DoD, one of the largest organization in the world with an annual budget over $500 billion, still relies on several thousand, non-integrated, and noninteroperable information legacy systems, that are error prone and redundant and do not provide the enterprise visibility necessary to make sound management decisions. Moreover, between FY07 and FY 09, DoD has requested from Congress over $47 billion in appropriations to operate, maintain, and modernize these business systems.

Dec. 1, 2009

A Policymaker’s Guide to Bioterrorism and What To Do About It

This paper draws together several years of work in an attempt to suggest the outlines of this thinking about the risk that the author regards as most pernicious: biological terrorism. It is written for those who desire a better understanding of this risk and its implications for policymakers.

Dec. 1, 2009

DTP-071: Forecasting Science and Technology for the Department of Defense

This paper discusses recent trends in S&T, particularly how various disciplines have converged to produce new capabilities, and considers how a new series of studies might be conducted taking into account such convergences.

Nov. 1, 2009

To Build Resilience: Leader Influence on Mental Hardiness

The military profession is inherently stressful and is getting more so for U.S. troops, who are deploying more often and for longer periods of time on missions that are multifaceted, changeable, and ambiguous. Such stressful conditions can lead to a range of health problems and performance decrements even among leaders. But not everyone reacts in negative ways to environmental stress. Most people remain healthy and continue to perform well even in the face of high stress levels. While much attention in recent years has focused on identifying and treating stress-related breakdowns such as post-traumatic stress disorder, scant investment has gone toward the study of healthy, resilient response patterns in people.

Oct. 1, 2009

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

This Occasional Paper traces the general evolution of the countering WMD enterprise in the Clinton and Bush administrations and anticipates some of the major WMD challenges that lie ahead.

Oct. 1, 2009

President Nixon’s Decision to Renounce the U.S. Offensive Biological Weapons Program

The nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union was a prominent feature of the Cold War. A lesser known but equally dangerous element of the superpower competition involved biological weapons (BW), living microorganisms that cause fatal or incapacitating diseases in humans, animals, or plants. By the late 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union had both acquired advanced BW capabilities. The U.S. biological weapons complex, operated by the U.S. Army Chemical Corps, consisted of a research and development laboratory at Fort Detrick in Maryland, an open-air testing site at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah, and a production facility at Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas that manufactured biological warfare agents and loaded them into bomblets, bombs, and spray tanks.

Sept. 15, 2009

DTP-070: Understanding and Leading Porous Network Organizations: An Analysis Based on the 7-S Model

This paper evaluates STAR-TIDES , an organization seeking to develop and share knowledge and technologies to enhance the capacity of disparate groups to respond effectively to disasters and humanitarian crises. Analyzing STAR-TIDES as a porous network organization, it applies an organizational analysis tool known as the “7-S framework” to clarify some of the key issues that must be addressed for such organizations to be effective and adaptive.

Sept. 1, 2009

Cyberspace and the “First Battle” in 21st-century War

Wars often start well before main forces engage. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, combat often began when light cavalry units crossed the border. For most of the 20th century, the “first battle” typically involved dawn surprise attacks, usually delivered by air forces. While a few of these attacks were so shattering that they essentially decided the outcome of the struggle or at least dramatically shaped its course—the Israeli air force’s attack at the opening of the June 1967 Six-Day War comes to mind—in most cases the defender had sufficient strategic space—geographic and/or temporal—to recover and eventually redress the strategic balance to emerge victorious. The opening moments of World War II for Russia and the United States provide two examples.

Sept. 1, 2009

DTP-067: An Extended Deterrence Regime to Counter Iranian Nuclear Weapons: Issues and Options

This paper examines the idea of creating an American-led extended deterrence regime in the Middle East to address potential Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons and missiles in a setting where the U.S. already possesses these weapons and is trying to employ them to geopolitical advantage.

Sept. 1, 2009

DTP-068: Defending the Military Food Supply: Acquisition, Preparation, and Protection of Food at U.S. Military Installations

This paper examines current measures in place to defend the military food supply and provides a series of recommendations that will enhance food defense and provide ancillary benefits to the military.

Sept. 1, 2009

DTP-069: What Democracy for Afghanistan? An Analysis Utilizing Established Norms and Five Non-Western Case Studies

This paper looks at democratic governance and what might be expected to take root in a society such as Afghanistan, shedding light on what is necessary, as a minimum, for democracy to become established. Suggesting replacements for goals that may be simply unattainable, such as an Afghan democracy held to an unrealistic Jeffersonian standard, it aims to impart a sense of what can be accomplished before international political will expires.

July 1, 2009

Military Perspectives on Cyber Power

CTNSP convened several workshops to address challenges in cyberspace, cyberpower, cyberstrategy, and institutional factors. Several representatives from the military Services participated extensively in those workshops. During those workshops, a variety of cyber issues emerged about the roles of the Services in the areas of roles and missions and the creation of needed intellectual capital. Subsequently, each of the Services identified volunteers who graciously generated white papers to illuminate the cyber debate.

July 1, 2009

Civilian Surge: Key to Complex Operations

The United States today manifestly lacks adequate civilian capacity to conduct complex operations—those operations that require close civil-military planning and cooperation in the field. This book is intended to fill that gap. Its main conclusion is that current efforts to build a civilian response capacity for complex operations are unfinished and that the Obama administration needs to dedicate additional attention and resources to complete the task.

July 1, 2009

DTP-066: Pandemic Flu Planning in Africa: Thoughts from a Nigerian Case Study

This paper discusses the Avian Influenza/Pandemic Influenza Policy Planning workshop held in Nigeria in June 2007, the objective of which was assisting selected Nigerian officials in evaluating their nation’s pandemic response plan.

June 1, 2009

DTP-063: Improving the Interface between Industry and Army Science and Technology: Some Thoughts on the Army’s Independent Research and Development Program

This paper presents the various ways that the Army laboratories link their work with external laboratories and looks for ways to improve these interfaces, with special emphasis on the IR&D (Independent Research & Development) program.

June 1, 2009

DTP-064: Computer Science Research Funding: How much is too little?

This papers summarizes and analyzes the findings of a study of the historical and planned level of Department of Defense (DOD) funding in computer science (CS) research from the 2001–2011 DOD records, and formulates key findings and recommendations.

June 1, 2009

DTP-065: The Active Denial System: A Revolutionary, Non-lethal Weapon for Today’s Battlefield

This paper explains and describes the advantages to ADS (Active Denial Systems) and how they can provide troops a capability they currently do not have, the ability to reach out and engage potential adversaries at distances well beyond small arms range, and in a safe, effective, and non-lethal manner.

May 1, 2009

Breaking the Yardstick: The Dangers of Market-based Governance

In the middle of the last century, America became a superpower. It happened, in part, because of a well-balanced technological partnership between the Federal Government and commercial sector. After winning a world war against fascism, this public-private alliance went on to cure infectious diseases, create instant global communications, land humans on the Moon, and prevail in a long Cold War against communism. This, and more, was accomplished without bankrupting the Nation’s economy. The partnership’s record of service to the American people and the world has been remarkable.

May 1, 2009

DTP-062: Directed Energy Weapons – Are We There Yet?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the barriers to deployment of directed energy weapons and suggest a strategy for an initial deployment that addresses these issues. This strategy will focus on current high-priority threats against which DEW would provide the best alternative for the military.

April 1, 2009

Cyberpower and National Security

Cyberpower and National Security frames the key issues concerned and identifies the important questions involved in building the human capacity to address cyber issues, balancing civil liberties with national security considerations, and developing the international partnerships needed to address cyber challenges. With more than two dozen contributors, Cyberpower and National Security covers it all.

April 1, 2009

DTP-061: Social Software and National Security: An Initial ‘Net Assessment’ by Mark Drapeau and Linton Wells II

This research paper as an initial net assessment of how social software interacts with government and security in the broadest sense.1 The analysis looks at both sides of what once might have been called a “blue-red” balance to investigate how social software is being used (or could be used) by not only the United States and its allies, but also by adversaries and other counterparties.

March 1, 2009

A 21st-century Concept of Air and Military Operations

The evolution of 21st-century air operations is unfolding under the impact of a new generation of fighter aircraft and a significant shift in the role of air operations in support of ground and maritime forces. So-called fifth-generation aircraft often are mistakenly viewed as simply the next iteration of airframes: fast, stealthy replacements of obsolescent legacy platforms. In fact, the capabilities of fifth-generation aircraft, and their integration into a network-centric joint force, will change the roles of manned fighter aircraft in air, ground, and maritime operations. These changes are so far-reaching that the Services face the challenge of crafting a new concept of 21st-century air operations, indeed, of all combat operations.

March 1, 2009

DTP-059: Perspectives from Former Executives of the DOD Corporate Research Laboratories

It is the purpose of this paper to document the thoughts and opinions of individuals who have led research activities at each of the following CRLs (Army, Navy, and Air Force corporate research laboratories): the Army Research Laboratory (ARL) in Adelphi, MD; the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, DC; and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in Dayton, Ohio respectively. These individuals are: John Lyons (ARL), Timothy Coffey (NRL), and Vincent Russo (AFRL).

March 1, 2009

DTP-060: Operation Anaconda: Lessons for Joint Operations

This study is not an official history of Anaconda but an analysis of lessons that can be learned from that battle and applied to future joint operations. This study’s intent is not to criticize, but instead to offer observations for joint operations, multinational operations, and expeditionary warfare in austere settings.

Feb. 1, 2009

Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century

Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century is a major policy report with fresh, independent ideas and analysis on the future roles and missions of the NATO Alliance. It calls for a reinvigorated Atlantic partnership to tackle global challenges and a new structure for NATO that rebalances its “home and away missions,” forges a fuller partnership with the European Union and other institutions, reorients Alliance military capabilities, reforms command arrangements, and changes decision-making, spending, and management practices. It also proposes urgent shifts in NATO strategy in Afghanistan and relations with Russia In fall 2008, four U.S. think tanks – the Atlantic Council of the United States; the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS); the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at the National Defense University (NDU); and the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) at the Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) – launched the Washington NATO Project to spark debate before and after NATO’s 60th anniversary summit in April, 2009. The Washington NATO Project seeks to generate new ideas and thinking about the transatlantic community’s role in a changing global security environment.

Feb. 1, 2009

DTP-058: Strengthening Technical Peer Review at the Army S&T Laboratories

The paper recommends that the Army require peer review of the technical quality of its laboratories and proposes a set of norms that must be met. The principal recommendation is that reviews be performed by independent experts who visit the laboratory for two or more days, looking at the technical projects and the strength of the technical staff, equipment, and facilities.

Jan. 1, 2009

From Sputnik to Minerva: Education and American National Security

This paper examines how external challenges have prompted national investments in education to enhance American national security. Rather than focusing primarily on traditional professional military education, this analysis examines how education has been used as a tool of American power. Four major moments of transformation in the international system are surveyed to illustrate a link between strategic educational capacity, defined as the application of attained knowledge and skills, and national power. The study then assesses how education is used as a power asset in the contemporary security environment. Today, an important educational capacity is emerging in the new Minerva program in the Department of Defense and other transformational educational concepts with security applications. Education is gaining an increasing interest among American decisionmakers as a strategic component of American power and an essential asset for successful military operations in the new global security environment.

Jan. 1, 2009

DTP-057: Army Science and Technology Investment In Interoperability

This paper discusses the elements of assessing ‘bang for bucks’ with regard to S&T investment in interoperability. It intends to point to where interoperability investment offers the greatest return and to open our thinking to the possibility that universal interoperability of all systems is not a desirable or attainable goal, especially when allocating investments and accepting reasonable risk.

Dec. 1, 2008

Transforming NATO: An NDU Anthology

Since September 11, 2001, the National Defense University has undertaken a series of studies on the Transformation of NATO for 21st Century missions. These studies focused on needed military capabilities, political transformation, new operational requirements, new missions, and NATO science and technology. Some of these studies made recommendations that were adopted as NATO policy while others may be ahead of their time. The purpose of this volume is to collect these studies under one cover and to stimulate further transformation.

Nov. 1, 2008

Lessons of Abu Ghraib: Understanding and Preventing Prisoner Abuse in Military Operations

The abuse of prisoners by U.S. Soldiers at Abu Ghraib had broad strategic consequences, leading many people around the world to question the legitimacy of U.S. goals and activities in Iraq. This paper draws on extensive unclassified reports from multiple investigations that followed Abu Ghraib, and applies key psychological as well as social-situational perspectives to develop a better grasp of the causative factors. From a psychological standpoint, most young adults are powerfully inclined to behave in accord with the social conventions and pressures around them. Especially in ambiguous circumstances, then, it is important that standards of behavior be clear and explicit throughout all phases of an operation and that leaders at all levels represent and reinforce those standards.

Oct. 1, 2008

DTP-056: Reform of the National Security Science and Technology Enterprise

This paper addresses three major topics requiring new thinking in the National Security Science and Technology Enterprise. The first topic is how overarching priorities can be better determined and implemented to direct the vast national security enterprise toward conducting S&T that will address both traditional and new national security challenges. The second deals with the integration of the Congressional committees that oversee and fund S&T. And the third focuses on the competence, role, and impact of the Government’s national security S&E workforce.

Sept. 1, 2008

DTP-054: Good Bugs, Bad Bugs: A Modern Approach for Detecting Offensive Biological Weapons Research

This report outlines a new framework to monitor countries in terms of their potential to engage in covert biological weapons research. This is an effort to develop an indirect approach to measuring a nation’s capability to conduct offensive weapons research in both civilian and government or military settings.

Sept. 1, 2008

DTP-055: A Methodology for Assessing the Military Benefits of Science and Technology Investments

This paper discusses approaches developed at CTNSP, at the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology, for measuring the benefits of today’s science and technology (S&T) investments on the future military.

Aug. 15, 2008

DTP-053: Programming Development Funds to Support a Counterinsurgency: Nangarhar, Afghanistan

This paper describes one method of programming development funds at a sub-national level to positively affect a counterinsurgency, in this case, in Eastern Afghanistan. It explores how one interagency group, the Jalalabad Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), developed and implemented a strategy for increasing stability in its area of operations by maximizing the resources each agency brought to the table and creating “unity of effort.”

Aug. 1, 2008

DTP-052: Toward a New Transatlantic Compact

This paper calls for a new NATO strategic concept and a new transatlantic compact, and envisions crafting them in tandem.

July 7, 2008

Bird Flu & You: A Quick Guide to Protecting Yourself and Your Family from Pandemic Flu

In anticipation of a possible flu pandemic, the Life Sciences group at CTNSP has started a number of initiatives to address both civilian and military implications. This poster is based on the November 2006 Defense & Technology Paper, “Weathering the Storm: Leading Your Organization Through a Pandemic”.

July 1, 2008

DTP-049: Building the S and E Workforce for 2040: Challenges Facing the Department of Defense

This paper examines some of the trends that have led to the government’s inability to maintain adequate technical competence and/or is not making proper use of the competence that it has maintained. It focuses on the government component of the model and it is expected that many of the same considerations will apply to the quasi-government component, also.

July 1, 2008

DTP-050: An Assessment of the Science and Technology Predictions in the Army’s STAR21 Report

This paper reviews the technology forecast assessments of the Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century (STAR21) study conducted for the Army by the National Research Council in the early 1990s.

July 1, 2008

DTP-051: Army Research and Development Collaboration and The Role of Globalization in Research

This paper considers a number of approaches to international collaboration in military research, discussing the challenges inherent in collaboration and considering recommendations for the future.

May 1, 2008

International Partnerships to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

This Occasional Paper examines the role, manifestations, and challenges of international cooperation to combat the weapons of mass destruction threat and poses important questions for future leaders to address in moving international cooperation forward in this area.

May 1, 2008

The Role of Medical Diplomacy in Stabilizing Afghanistan

Comprehensive stabilization and reconstruction of Afghanistan are not possible given the current fragmentation of responsibilities, narrow lines of authorities, and archaic funding mechanisms. Afghans are supportive of U.S. and international efforts, and there are occasional signs of progress, but the insurgent threat grows as U.S. military and civilian agencies and the international community struggle to bring stability to this volatile region. Integrated security, stabilization, and reconstruction activities must be implemented quickly and efficiently if failure is to be averted. Much more than a course correction is needed to provide tangible benefits to the population, develop effective leadership capacity in the government, and invest wisely in reconstruction that leads to sustainable economic growth. A proactive, comprehensive reconstruction and stabilization plan for Afghanistan is crucial to counter the regional terrorist insurgency, much as the Marshall Plan was necessary to combat the communist threat from the Soviet Union.1 This paper examines the health sector as a microcosm of the larger problems facing the United States and its allies in efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.

May 1, 2008

Preparing for Catastrophic Bioterrorism: Toward a Long-Term Strategy for Limiting the Risk

This paper, circulated within government early in 2006, outlines an approach to these requirements and provides several examples of how the application of this approach can create a strategy. As described below, several of the recommendations offered here have recently been acted upon, some of them encouraged by this work, others as a consequence of independent, parallel initiatives. Nonetheless, more than 6 years—a period longer than World War II—after the 2001 anthrax letters catalyzed greater government efforts to counter bioterrorism, our homeland security officials are still struggling to define a biodefense strategy. This paper is being published in the hope that a broader discussion will yield further progress.

May 1, 2008

DTP-048: Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat Within

This paper attempts to illustrate how difficult, if not impossible, it is to find root causes of domestic terrorism that are of general applicability. It is likely to be more important to focus on the unique cultural stamp of the individual nation to assess the reason for violence-prone disquietude among its citizens and residents.

March 1, 2008

DTP-047: China’s Science and Technology Emergence: A Proposal for U.S. DOD-China Collaboration in Fundamental Research

This report proposes the establishment of a constructive, phased strategy for engaging in collaborative fundamental research with Chinese academic institutions. Recent evaluations of top S&T universities and their specific capabilities suggest appropriate scientific areas where beneficial collaborations between DoD and China should be fostered.

Feb. 1, 2008

So Many Zebras, So Little Time: Ecological Models and Counterinsurgency Operations

Force ratios are an important variable in warfare and in nature. On the Serengeti, large zebra herds are constantly hunted by small prides of lions. But with their overwhelming majority, why don’t the zebras unite and attack the lions? Hooves can be as deadly as claws when used correctly. And conversely, if the lions are such effective predators, why are there so many zebras?

Jan. 1, 2008

Cyber Influence and International Security

Cyber influence is an ongoing source of power in the international security arena. Although the United States has an enormous cyber information capacity, its cyber influence is not proportional to that capacity. Impediments to American cyber influence include the vastness and complexity of the international information environment, multiplicity of cultures and differing audiences to which communications must be addressed, extensiveness and significance of contending or alternative messages, and complexity and importance of using appropriate influential messengers and message mechanisms.

Jan. 1, 2008

Strategic Fragility: Infrastructure Protection and National Security in the Information Age

Modern societies have reached unprecedented levels of prosperity, yet they remain vulnerable to a wide range of possible disruptions. One significant reason for this growing vulnerability is the developed world’s reliance on an array of interlinked, interdependent critical infrastructures that span nations and even continents. The advent of these infrastructures over the past few decades has resulted in a tradeoff: the United States has gained greater productivity and prosperity at the risk of greater exposure to widespread systemic collapse. The trends that have led to this growing strategic fragility show no sign of slowing. As a result, the United States faces a new and different kind of threat to national security.

Jan. 1, 2008

From Reform to Reduction: Reports on the Management of Navy and Department of Defense Laboratories in the Post-Cold War Era

This book reviews approximately 65 of the significant reports issued on Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of the Navy (DON) management of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) from the end of the Cold War through the late 1990s.

Jan. 1, 2008

DTP-046: Winning the Invisible War: An Agricultural Pilot Plan for Afghanistan

The purpose of this paper is to propose efforts to integrate a comprehensive campaign plan that brings together security and reconstruction efforts and the plethora of governmental and nongovernmental organizations working in Afghanistan.

Dec. 1, 2007

Organizing for National Security: Unification or Coordination?

Experience gained from the 9/11 attacks, combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, disaster assistance during and after Hurricane Katrina, and the ongoing war on terror provides the basis for amending our anachronistic national security structures and practices. Many analysts and officials have called for a second-generation version of the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 to address the array of organizational and management challenges that we face. Some argue that the new security environment requires even more fundamental change, similar to what was enacted after World War II. The principal legislation that emerged from that era was the National Security Act of 1947. Goldwater-Nichols aimed to fix inter-Service problems by streamlining the chain of command and promoting “jointness” but did not fundamentally alter the structure of the U.S. military.