Dec. 1, 2007

Coping with the Dragon: Essays on PLA Transformation

Should the independence movement in Taiwan regain political momentum, however, the potential for U.S. military intervention in the Taiwan Strait would increase.

Oct. 1, 2007

DTP-044: Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia’s Near Abroad

This paper evaluates the argument that Kosovo’s situation represents a precedent for separatists elsewhere by comparing it to the four regions in the Former Soviet Union most often cited in relation to it and is intended to highlight the similarities and differences between these cases, to facilitate negotiations on the resolution of the final status of Kosovo.

Sept. 1, 2007

The Comprehensive Approach Initiative: Future Options for NATO

Experience has shown that conflict resolution requires the application of all elements of national and international power— political, diplomatic, economic, financial, informational, social, and commercial, as well as military. To resolve conflicts or crises, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should adopt a Comprehensive Approach that would enable the collaborative engagement of all requisite civil and military elements of international power to end hostilities, restore order, commence reconstruction, and begin to address a conflict’s root causes. NATO can provide the military element for a comprehensive approach. Many other national, international, and nongovernmental actors can provide the civilian elements.

Sept. 1, 2007

DTP-042: U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping: Areas for Additional DOD Assistance

This report addresses primarily those areas in which limited DoD involvement will provide multiplier benefits to U.S. Security. While beyond the scope of this study, a government-wide, comprehensive review of possible assistance should be conducted.

Sept. 1, 2007

DTP-043: A Further Look at Technologies and Capabilities for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

This present study resumes where the first study left off, expanding on identifying capability needs and possible technology solutions to the S&R problems facing the force today and in the future.

July 1, 2007

Privatizing While Transforming

The Armed Forces of the United States are designed to be supported by capabilities provided by civilians. The Army, for example, depends not only on Reserve and National Guard components for warfighting elements, but also on private contractors for numerous roles no longer performed by military personnel. Originally working in small contingents focused on logistical functions, private contractors now rival military personnel in number in the battlespace. In addition to providing direct logistical support to the military, contractors perform equipment maintenance and reconstruction work, train military and police, and work as civil affairs staff, interpreters, and even interrogators. They also provide private armed security services. The issues arising from new roles are exacerbated by the growth of the contractor population in conflict zones at a pace that defies effective recordkeeping.

July 1, 2007

Enhancing Army Science and Technology: Lessons from Project Hindsight Revisited

This book draws on a series of studies known as Project Hindsight Revisited conducted by the authors at the National Defense University from 2004–2006.

July 1, 2007

DTP-041: Deploying Nuclear Detection Systems: A Proposed Strategy for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

This report provides an overview of the threat from nuclear terrorism; discusses the role of intelligence and risk assessments in countering this threat; provides a brief overview of nuclear detection technologies and issues; briefly summarizes key U.S. Government programs involved in nuclear detection; summarizes domestic legislation; and discusses the need for a global approach to nuclear nonproliferation.

June 1, 2007

Responding in the Homeland: A Snapshot of NATO’s Readiness for CBRN Attacks

The possibility of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members having to respond to a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) incident is not a hypothetical scenario reserved for training exercises. Indeed, a number of countries worldwide have considerable experience in dealing with a variety of naturally occurring, accidental, and deliberate CBRN incidents. NATO itself, however, has no clear conceptual vision of its role in civil emergencies because preparedness of this sort remains a national responsibility.

May 1, 2007

DTP-040: Future Directions For U.S. Foreign Policy: Balancing Status Quo and Reform

This paper offers a framework for how to analyze and blend together the viability of returning to a set of policies and with that of a greater emphasis on the status quo. It also offers a direction of where these analyses can lead in the future. It is a global perspective but provides insights along the way on the Middle East.

April 1, 2007

The Future Nuclear Landscape

This Occasional Paper examines aspects of the contemporary and emerging international security environment that the authors believe will define the future nuclear landscape and identifies some associated priorities for policymakers.

April 1, 2007

DTP-039: Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research

This paper will focus on scientific discoveries that have already lead to new capabilities for the Air Force, as well as those discoveries that will lead to the new capabilities envisioned in the 2004 Flight plan and 2006 Posture Statement and those yet to be envisioned.

Feb. 1, 2007

I-Power: The Information Revolution and Stability Operations

Information and information technology (I/IT) can significantly increase the likelihood of success in stability operations— if they are engaged as part of an overall strategy that coordinates the actions of outside intervenors and focuses on generating effective results for the host nation. Properly utilized, I/IT can help create a knowledgeable intervention, organize complex activities, and integrate stability operations with the host nation, making stability operations more effective.

Dec. 1, 2006

Case Studies – Archive

As a resource for civilian and military classroom instruction, the Center for Technology and National Security Policy—with sponsorship by the [former] Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Force Transformation and Resources— developed a series of case studies to examine issues of national security transformation. These case studies are considered “living” documents, continually evolving as developments occur in national security transformation and new information becomes available. All of the case studies include an instructors guide at the end of the study for use in classroom settings.

Nov. 1, 2006

DTP-038: Weathering the Storm: Leading Your Organization Through a Pandemic

This document is a guide to help prepare your organization for survival during a pandemic. All organizations have their own culture and character, so no one easy-to-follow guide will provide all the answers for your specific group. Rather, this is designed to provide you with resource materials from which you may pick and choose to tailor a plan that is best suited to your circumstances.

Oct. 1, 2006

DTP-037: Army Science and Technology Analysis for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

This study assesses the technology capability gaps in the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct S&R operations. The purpose of this study is to identify the technological shortfalls, identify capability gaps and needs, and highlight technology opportunities for consideration by Army S&T leadership.

Sept. 1, 2006

DTP-035: Critical Technology Events in the Development of Selected Army Weapons Systems: A Summary of ‘Project Hindsight Revisited’

This report collects and summarizes the findings from prior studies regarding the effectiveness of the Abrams tank, Apache helicopter, and two-man portable missile system. This report compares these findings to the findings from the original Project Hindsight and then offers recommendations based on the four systems for managing today’s Army science and technology work.

Sept. 1, 2006

DTP-036: Overcoming the S&T Assessment Uncertainty Principle: An Approach to Enterprise-Wide Assessment of the DOD S&T Program

This study examines why the sum of all the reviews of the relevance, viability, and productivity of the S&T program of the DoD does not constitute an assessment of the entire DoD S&T enterprise and examines the prospects for rectifying this situation.

Aug. 1, 2006

Lee’s Mistake: Learning from the Decision to Order Pickett’s Charge

At the Battle of Gettysburg, Robert E. Lee made a mistake that doomed the hopes of the Confederate States of America to compel the United States to sue for peace. Why one of the great generals of his time made such a blunder continues to be a topic of research and intense debate. Lee said little at the time or afterward to justify his decision to launch what has become known as Pickett’s Charge, so analysis must be inferential and inconclusive. Our aim is to explain Lee’s fateful decision not with new facts but with new analytical methods to illuminate decisionmaking in combat.

Aug. 1, 2006

DTP-034: Solutions for Northern Kosovo: Lessons Learned in Mostar, Eastern Slavonia, and Brcko

This paper examines three similar cases to the issues in Kososvo that were managed by the international community. By looking at the results of these three cases a decade or more after they began, this paper attempts to shed light on the options for Mitrovica, Kosovo. In order to do this, members of the CTNSP staff traveled to these areas to gather firsthand information relating to this problem.

July 1, 2006

Countering Terrorism Across the Atlantic?

Differences in strategic vision and concepts of security are central to the U.S. and European Union (EU) approaches to counterterrorism. While the United States conceives of a war against terrorism, Europe does not. As a result of different perceptions of the threat, both sides of the Atlantic take divergent approaches to homeland security. Europeans tend to favor the use of a law enforcement strategy over a warfighting approach. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration believes that a quasi-militaristic, overtly proactive, and highly vigilant stance will serve as the best deterrent to future attacks. By their own standards, Europeans are doing more to counter terrorism since September 11 and even more since the attacks in Madrid (March 11, 2004) and in London (July 7, 2005); by U.S. standards, these measures sometimes appear inadequate. As a result, there are significant transatlantic divergences on the best methods for halting the spread of terrorism.

July 1, 2006

BATTLE WISE: Seeking Time-Information Superiority in Networked Warfare

This book is an inquiry into the possibility of improving the operational thinking and decisionmaking of U.S. military individuals, teams, and forces who fight for their nation.

July 1, 2006

Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: New Methods for a New Era

Most books on national security affairs focus on substantive issues, such as nuclear proliferation, arguing in favor of one policy or another. This book addresses something more basic: how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It illuminates how key methods of analysis can be employed, by experts and nonexperts, to focus widely, address small details, or do both at the same time. It provides an appraisal of methods that can be employed to analyze issues ranging from the lofty abstractions of national security policy and strategy to the concrete specifics of plans, programs, and budgets.

July 1, 2006

DTP-030: A New Conceptual Framework for Net-Centric, Enterprise-Wide, System-of-Systems Engineering

This paper presents a theoretical framework for thinking about system-of-systems (SOS) on a large scale, a net-centric approach to SOS engineering, and a way ahead for DoD. The theoretical framework defines the general characteristics of SOSs, and describes how these lead to underlying problems which address problems from integrated social, organizational, and technical perspectives.

July 1, 2006

DTP-031: An ICT Primer: Information and Communication Technologies for Civil-Military Coordination in Disaster Relief and Stabilization and Reconstruction

This primer presents current knowledge and best practices in creating a collaborative, civil-military, information environment to support data collection, communications, collaboration, and information-sharing needs in disaster situations and complex emergencies.

July 1, 2006

DTP-032: Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University. The paper describes the methodology underlying the software, and then provides an overview of three case studies that used the software.

July 1, 2006

DTP-033: Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Stinger and Javelin Missile Systems: Project Hindsight Revisited

This paper seeks to identify the Critical Technological Events (CTEs) in the development of the Stinger and Javelin missiles. It is the third paper in a series that, driven by importance of understanding past military technological successes to today’s defense science and technology (S&T) investment and management, examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into current U.S. Army weapon systems.

May 1, 2006

Transatlantic Homeland Defense

CTNSP/INSS Special Report NATO plays an essential role in defense of the transatlantic homeland from terrorism and other transnational threats, but it could do more, including in support of national, European Union, and Partner efforts to enhance societal security. This paper proposes an initiative to enhance NATO’s planning and capabilities in this area at the Alliance’s November 2006 Riga Summit. This back-to-basics approach is designed to ensure that NATO can deal effectively with new threats to the transatlantic homeland. it would also enhance NATO’s relevance in the eyes of the public on both sides of the Atlantic.

March 1, 2006

Creating a NATO Special Operations Force

In the post-9/11 security environment, special operations forces (SOF) have proven indispensable. SOF units are light, lethal, mobile, and easily networked with other forces. While the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have extensive SOF capabilities, these forces are not formally organized to collaborate with one another. There would be much to gain if U.S. and allied SOF trained to work together: national SOF assets would be improved, obstacles to effective combined operations would be removed, and a coherent Alliance capability would be readily available for NATO. The Alliance can focus and grow its SOF capabilities by providing a selective and small combined “inner core” of NATO special operations forces for operations, while using an outer network to expand and improve SOF cooperation with interested allies.

March 1, 2006

DTP-028: Bringing Defense into the Information Economy

This is an exploratory essay aimed at injecting new perspective and questions into the study of the fundamentals of defense economics. It is meant to start a “productive conversation” about the affordability of defense and the alignment of technology, economics, and grand strategy.

March 1, 2006

DTP-029: Cooperative Crisis Management and Avian Influenza: A Risk Assessment Guide for International Contagious Disease Prevention and Risk Mitigation

This paper proposes a risk assessment and mitigation strategy designed to give both national authorities and international organizations the diagnostic took needed to evaluate preparedness, identify country-level weaknesses, and prioritize scarce resources to combat avian influenza.

Feb. 1, 2006

Custer in Cyberspace

The combination of abundant networked information and fluid, unfamiliar situations in the current era makes it at once possible and imperative to improve decisionmaking in combat. The key to improvement is to integrate faster reasoning and more reliable intuition into a cognitive whole to achieve battle-wisdom. Although the technologies that both demand and facilitate battle- wisdom are new, military history holds lessons on combining reasoning and intuition in conditions of urgency, danger, and uncertainty.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-024: Extending the User’s Reach: Responsive Networking for Integrated Military Operations

The aim of this study is to identify a path for the U.S. DoD to improve the responsiveness of military information networks for joint warfighters. This is not a technical treatise about bits and bandwidth; it proposes no architecture or standards. Rather, it looks at how military-operational information requirements relate to national strategy and at how those requirements are set and met.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-025: Issues in Air Force Science and Technology Funding

This paper looks at several issues surrounding future Air Force S&T and offers some suggestions for the future. It also looks at the framework of Air Force science and technology and a long-term history of Air Force S&T funding.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-026: Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Apache Helicopter: Project Hindsight Revisited

This study is the second in a series that examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into the U.S. Army weapons systems we see in the field today. The purpose of this report is to examine the development of select Army systems, and in particular those signal technology events that propelled these systems to success, and to shed light on the factors that lead defense science and technology research to fruition.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-027: Implementing DOD’s International Science and Technology Strategy

As can be seen from the recently released “International Science and Technology Strategy for the United States Department of Defense,” the network for worldwide sharing of defense S&T information is vast, and the new strategy provides an excellent framework to maximize this potential. This paper provides some specific thoughts on implementation and how certain steps might benefit all involved.

Jan. 1, 2006

Report to the Congress: Information Technology Program

In the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2002, the Report of the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, stated that the “Department of Defense can no longer depend on a dedicated defense industrial base, but will need to find ways to link advanced commercial technologies to improved military capabilities.” Congress asked CTNSP to implement a program “to find practical ways in which the defense information technology (IT) community can gain a mutual understanding of defense needs and industry capabilities and identify opportunities to integrate technology innovation in the U.S. military strategy.”

Jan. 1, 2006

DTP-023: The New Reality of International Telecommunications Strategy

This paper considers the relative decline of American Telecommunications leadership from geopolitical and technical perspectives. This decline is important to recognize and understand because it is masked by the achievements of the American economy and U.S. military successes since the end of the Cold War.

Dec. 1, 2005

DTP-022: Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Abrams Tank: Project Hindsight Revisited

This paper consists of a series of studies focusing on Army weapons systems, beginning with the mainstay of the Army’s armor force, the Abrams tank. Analysis of other Army systems, such as the Apache helicopter and the Javelin and Stinger missiles will follow. The results of all studies are complied in a wrap-up report that will focus on the implications of the findings for today’s S&T environment.

Nov. 1, 2005

DTP-021: The Bug Stops Here: Force Protection and Emerging Infectious Diseases

The purpose of this paper is to review important lessons that have been learned in the past, and to revisit the older but proven principles of force protection that are in danger of being forgotten in today’s technology-focused military environment. It provides a series of case studies that analyze health threats to each regional combatant command and presents both tactical and strategic recommendations that will better prepare the entire DoD for future outbreaks.

Oct. 1, 2005

Sweden’s Use of Commercial Information Technology for Military Applications

Sweden, a nation of only 9 million people with a political climate that has fostered a posture of nonalignment for over half a century, has nevertheless maintained highly credible, modern, and high-technology military forces. Sweden has expanded the mission of forces originally designed for the Cold War to include international peacekeeping. The focus of this study is the Swedish formula for achieving the high-technology military capabilities that successfully compensate for a small standing force. What policies and processes enabled the Swedish military to take advantage of leading-edge producers of commercial information technology (CIT)? What lessons does the Swedish model hold for the U.S. Department of Defense?

Oct. 1, 2005

Russia and NATO: Increased Interaction in Defense Research and Technology

As a member of both the Partnership for Peace and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)–Russia Council (NRC), Russia enjoys remarkable status in an alliance formed principally to counter Soviet aggression. Active participation in one additional element of NATO—the Research and Technology Organization (RTO)—would offer unique opportunities to enhance relationships and mutual security. The RTO is the largest organization of its type in the world, has an extremely active program of work, and is eager to work with Russia.

Sept. 15, 2005

DTP-020: Making IT Happen: Transforming Military Information Technology, edited by Joseph N. Mait

This report is a primer for commercial providers to gain some understanding of the military’s thinking about military information technology and some of the programs it foresees for the future. The intent is to introduce those not presently involved in the development of military information technology to some of the things and programs being developed by the DoD for deployment in the next five to ten years.

Sept. 5, 2005

DTP-019: Alternative Fleet Architecture Design

This report calls into question the viability of the longstanding logic of naval force building. It provides a description of the opportunities that rapid advances in technology and organizational effectiveness offer the U.S. Navy as it looks to the demanding future. Most important, it provides an alternative fleet architecture design that incorporates the three broad elements of the DoD’s transformation strategy.

Sept. 1, 2005

DTP-018: The NATO Response Force: Facilitating Coalition Warfare Through Technology Transfer and Information Sharing

This study is an examination of the issues associated with transferring U.S. technology and information needed for standing up such an advanced force for early entry into high-intensity conflicts. It also makes a number of additional observations about the nature of 21st century coalition warfighting, the centrality of network-centric warfare to coalition operations, and the importance and complexity of improving force interoperability in an increasingly network-centric environment.

Aug. 15, 2005

DTP-017: The Science and Technology Innovation Conundrum

This study is motivated by the observation that the state of health of the United States S&T enterprise seems to be simultaneously characterized by opposite assessments. The purpose of this study is to shed light on how this conundrum has come about, and from this perspective to evaluate potential impacts of the underlying drivers of the conundrum on the technological positioning and ultimate national security of the U.S.

Aug. 1, 2005

DTP-016: Harnessing the Interagency for Complex Operations

This paper attempts to catalogue and describe the known models for interagency cooperation for stabilization and reconstruction (S&R) operations. The models in existence and under discussion can be grouped in terms of their focus on different aspects of the interagency process, as well as on different aspects of S&R.

July 15, 2005

DTP-015: Learning from Darfur: Building a Net-Capable African Force to Stop Mass Killing

The purpose of this report is to explore one particularly promising model of combat force to intervene in Africa to stop mass killings and other atrocities. Its conclusion is that networking concepts and technologies that were effective in Afghanistan and Iraq can be used by Africans with intensive external help to field a capability for forcible humanitarian intervention.

July 1, 2005

Can al Qaeda Be Deterred from Using Nuclear Weapons?

This occasional paper pursues four different but complementary approaches to dissect the issue of whether acquisition of NBC/R weapons will mean employment for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.

July 1, 2005

The Changing Landscape of Defense Innovation

In a rapidly evolving business environment, many successful companies have transformed themselves by reexamining their core missions and competencies and exploiting innovation in nontraditional ways. General Electric still manufactures products but now identifies itself as a services company. Wal-Mart has become the premier retailer by capitalizing on its logistics and support systems. These two giants and other companies have realized that they can become more profitable by exploiting new regions of the business landscape.