Aug. 1, 2008

DTP-052: Toward a New Transatlantic Compact

This paper calls for a new NATO strategic concept and a new transatlantic compact, and envisions crafting them in tandem.

July 7, 2008

Bird Flu & You: A Quick Guide to Protecting Yourself and Your Family from Pandemic Flu

In anticipation of a possible flu pandemic, the Life Sciences group at CTNSP has started a number of initiatives to address both civilian and military implications. This poster is based on the November 2006 Defense & Technology Paper, “Weathering the Storm: Leading Your Organization Through a Pandemic”.

July 1, 2008

DTP-049: Building the S and E Workforce for 2040: Challenges Facing the Department of Defense

This paper examines some of the trends that have led to the government’s inability to maintain adequate technical competence and/or is not making proper use of the competence that it has maintained. It focuses on the government component of the model and it is expected that many of the same considerations will apply to the quasi-government component, also.

July 1, 2008

DTP-050: An Assessment of the Science and Technology Predictions in the Army’s STAR21 Report

This paper reviews the technology forecast assessments of the Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century (STAR21) study conducted for the Army by the National Research Council in the early 1990s.

July 1, 2008

DTP-051: Army Research and Development Collaboration and The Role of Globalization in Research

This paper considers a number of approaches to international collaboration in military research, discussing the challenges inherent in collaboration and considering recommendations for the future.

May 1, 2008

International Partnerships to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

This Occasional Paper examines the role, manifestations, and challenges of international cooperation to combat the weapons of mass destruction threat and poses important questions for future leaders to address in moving international cooperation forward in this area.

May 1, 2008

The Role of Medical Diplomacy in Stabilizing Afghanistan

Comprehensive stabilization and reconstruction of Afghanistan are not possible given the current fragmentation of responsibilities, narrow lines of authorities, and archaic funding mechanisms. Afghans are supportive of U.S. and international efforts, and there are occasional signs of progress, but the insurgent threat grows as U.S. military and civilian agencies and the international community struggle to bring stability to this volatile region. Integrated security, stabilization, and reconstruction activities must be implemented quickly and efficiently if failure is to be averted. Much more than a course correction is needed to provide tangible benefits to the population, develop effective leadership capacity in the government, and invest wisely in reconstruction that leads to sustainable economic growth. A proactive, comprehensive reconstruction and stabilization plan for Afghanistan is crucial to counter the regional terrorist insurgency, much as the Marshall Plan was necessary to combat the communist threat from the Soviet Union.1 This paper examines the health sector as a microcosm of the larger problems facing the United States and its allies in efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.

May 1, 2008

Preparing for Catastrophic Bioterrorism: Toward a Long-Term Strategy for Limiting the Risk

This paper, circulated within government early in 2006, outlines an approach to these requirements and provides several examples of how the application of this approach can create a strategy. As described below, several of the recommendations offered here have recently been acted upon, some of them encouraged by this work, others as a consequence of independent, parallel initiatives. Nonetheless, more than 6 years—a period longer than World War II—after the 2001 anthrax letters catalyzed greater government efforts to counter bioterrorism, our homeland security officials are still struggling to define a biodefense strategy. This paper is being published in the hope that a broader discussion will yield further progress.

May 1, 2008

DTP-048: Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat Within

This paper attempts to illustrate how difficult, if not impossible, it is to find root causes of domestic terrorism that are of general applicability. It is likely to be more important to focus on the unique cultural stamp of the individual nation to assess the reason for violence-prone disquietude among its citizens and residents.

March 1, 2008

DTP-047: China’s Science and Technology Emergence: A Proposal for U.S. DOD-China Collaboration in Fundamental Research

This report proposes the establishment of a constructive, phased strategy for engaging in collaborative fundamental research with Chinese academic institutions. Recent evaluations of top S&T universities and their specific capabilities suggest appropriate scientific areas where beneficial collaborations between DoD and China should be fostered.

Feb. 1, 2008

So Many Zebras, So Little Time: Ecological Models and Counterinsurgency Operations

Force ratios are an important variable in warfare and in nature. On the Serengeti, large zebra herds are constantly hunted by small prides of lions. But with their overwhelming majority, why don’t the zebras unite and attack the lions? Hooves can be as deadly as claws when used correctly. And conversely, if the lions are such effective predators, why are there so many zebras?

Jan. 1, 2008

Cyber Influence and International Security

Cyber influence is an ongoing source of power in the international security arena. Although the United States has an enormous cyber information capacity, its cyber influence is not proportional to that capacity. Impediments to American cyber influence include the vastness and complexity of the international information environment, multiplicity of cultures and differing audiences to which communications must be addressed, extensiveness and significance of contending or alternative messages, and complexity and importance of using appropriate influential messengers and message mechanisms.

Jan. 1, 2008

Strategic Fragility: Infrastructure Protection and National Security in the Information Age

Modern societies have reached unprecedented levels of prosperity, yet they remain vulnerable to a wide range of possible disruptions. One significant reason for this growing vulnerability is the developed world’s reliance on an array of interlinked, interdependent critical infrastructures that span nations and even continents. The advent of these infrastructures over the past few decades has resulted in a tradeoff: the United States has gained greater productivity and prosperity at the risk of greater exposure to widespread systemic collapse. The trends that have led to this growing strategic fragility show no sign of slowing. As a result, the United States faces a new and different kind of threat to national security.

Jan. 1, 2008

From Reform to Reduction: Reports on the Management of Navy and Department of Defense Laboratories in the Post-Cold War Era

This book reviews approximately 65 of the significant reports issued on Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of the Navy (DON) management of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) from the end of the Cold War through the late 1990s.

Jan. 1, 2008

DTP-046: Winning the Invisible War: An Agricultural Pilot Plan for Afghanistan

The purpose of this paper is to propose efforts to integrate a comprehensive campaign plan that brings together security and reconstruction efforts and the plethora of governmental and nongovernmental organizations working in Afghanistan.

Dec. 1, 2007

Organizing for National Security: Unification or Coordination?

Experience gained from the 9/11 attacks, combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, disaster assistance during and after Hurricane Katrina, and the ongoing war on terror provides the basis for amending our anachronistic national security structures and practices. Many analysts and officials have called for a second-generation version of the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 to address the array of organizational and management challenges that we face. Some argue that the new security environment requires even more fundamental change, similar to what was enacted after World War II. The principal legislation that emerged from that era was the National Security Act of 1947. Goldwater-Nichols aimed to fix inter-Service problems by streamlining the chain of command and promoting “jointness” but did not fundamentally alter the structure of the U.S. military.

Dec. 1, 2007

Coping with the Dragon: Essays on PLA Transformation

Should the independence movement in Taiwan regain political momentum, however, the potential for U.S. military intervention in the Taiwan Strait would increase.

Oct. 1, 2007

DTP-044: Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia’s Near Abroad

This paper evaluates the argument that Kosovo’s situation represents a precedent for separatists elsewhere by comparing it to the four regions in the Former Soviet Union most often cited in relation to it and is intended to highlight the similarities and differences between these cases, to facilitate negotiations on the resolution of the final status of Kosovo.

Sept. 1, 2007

The Comprehensive Approach Initiative: Future Options for NATO

Experience has shown that conflict resolution requires the application of all elements of national and international power— political, diplomatic, economic, financial, informational, social, and commercial, as well as military. To resolve conflicts or crises, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should adopt a Comprehensive Approach that would enable the collaborative engagement of all requisite civil and military elements of international power to end hostilities, restore order, commence reconstruction, and begin to address a conflict’s root causes. NATO can provide the military element for a comprehensive approach. Many other national, international, and nongovernmental actors can provide the civilian elements.

Sept. 1, 2007

DTP-042: U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping: Areas for Additional DOD Assistance

This report addresses primarily those areas in which limited DoD involvement will provide multiplier benefits to U.S. Security. While beyond the scope of this study, a government-wide, comprehensive review of possible assistance should be conducted.

Sept. 1, 2007

DTP-043: A Further Look at Technologies and Capabilities for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

This present study resumes where the first study left off, expanding on identifying capability needs and possible technology solutions to the S&R problems facing the force today and in the future.

July 1, 2007

Privatizing While Transforming

The Armed Forces of the United States are designed to be supported by capabilities provided by civilians. The Army, for example, depends not only on Reserve and National Guard components for warfighting elements, but also on private contractors for numerous roles no longer performed by military personnel. Originally working in small contingents focused on logistical functions, private contractors now rival military personnel in number in the battlespace. In addition to providing direct logistical support to the military, contractors perform equipment maintenance and reconstruction work, train military and police, and work as civil affairs staff, interpreters, and even interrogators. They also provide private armed security services. The issues arising from new roles are exacerbated by the growth of the contractor population in conflict zones at a pace that defies effective recordkeeping.

July 1, 2007

Enhancing Army Science and Technology: Lessons from Project Hindsight Revisited

This book draws on a series of studies known as Project Hindsight Revisited conducted by the authors at the National Defense University from 2004–2006.

July 1, 2007

DTP-041: Deploying Nuclear Detection Systems: A Proposed Strategy for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

This report provides an overview of the threat from nuclear terrorism; discusses the role of intelligence and risk assessments in countering this threat; provides a brief overview of nuclear detection technologies and issues; briefly summarizes key U.S. Government programs involved in nuclear detection; summarizes domestic legislation; and discusses the need for a global approach to nuclear nonproliferation.

June 1, 2007

Responding in the Homeland: A Snapshot of NATO’s Readiness for CBRN Attacks

The possibility of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members having to respond to a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) incident is not a hypothetical scenario reserved for training exercises. Indeed, a number of countries worldwide have considerable experience in dealing with a variety of naturally occurring, accidental, and deliberate CBRN incidents. NATO itself, however, has no clear conceptual vision of its role in civil emergencies because preparedness of this sort remains a national responsibility.

May 1, 2007

DTP-040: Future Directions For U.S. Foreign Policy: Balancing Status Quo and Reform

This paper offers a framework for how to analyze and blend together the viability of returning to a set of policies and with that of a greater emphasis on the status quo. It also offers a direction of where these analyses can lead in the future. It is a global perspective but provides insights along the way on the Middle East.

April 1, 2007

The Future Nuclear Landscape

This Occasional Paper examines aspects of the contemporary and emerging international security environment that the authors believe will define the future nuclear landscape and identifies some associated priorities for policymakers.

April 1, 2007

DTP-039: Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research

This paper will focus on scientific discoveries that have already lead to new capabilities for the Air Force, as well as those discoveries that will lead to the new capabilities envisioned in the 2004 Flight plan and 2006 Posture Statement and those yet to be envisioned.

Feb. 1, 2007

I-Power: The Information Revolution and Stability Operations

Information and information technology (I/IT) can significantly increase the likelihood of success in stability operations— if they are engaged as part of an overall strategy that coordinates the actions of outside intervenors and focuses on generating effective results for the host nation. Properly utilized, I/IT can help create a knowledgeable intervention, organize complex activities, and integrate stability operations with the host nation, making stability operations more effective.

Dec. 1, 2006

Case Studies – Archive

As a resource for civilian and military classroom instruction, the Center for Technology and National Security Policy—with sponsorship by the [former] Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Force Transformation and Resources— developed a series of case studies to examine issues of national security transformation. These case studies are considered “living” documents, continually evolving as developments occur in national security transformation and new information becomes available. All of the case studies include an instructors guide at the end of the study for use in classroom settings.

Nov. 1, 2006

DTP-038: Weathering the Storm: Leading Your Organization Through a Pandemic

This document is a guide to help prepare your organization for survival during a pandemic. All organizations have their own culture and character, so no one easy-to-follow guide will provide all the answers for your specific group. Rather, this is designed to provide you with resource materials from which you may pick and choose to tailor a plan that is best suited to your circumstances.

Oct. 1, 2006

DTP-037: Army Science and Technology Analysis for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

This study assesses the technology capability gaps in the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct S&R operations. The purpose of this study is to identify the technological shortfalls, identify capability gaps and needs, and highlight technology opportunities for consideration by Army S&T leadership.

Sept. 1, 2006

DTP-035: Critical Technology Events in the Development of Selected Army Weapons Systems: A Summary of ‘Project Hindsight Revisited’

This report collects and summarizes the findings from prior studies regarding the effectiveness of the Abrams tank, Apache helicopter, and two-man portable missile system. This report compares these findings to the findings from the original Project Hindsight and then offers recommendations based on the four systems for managing today’s Army science and technology work.

Sept. 1, 2006

DTP-036: Overcoming the S&T Assessment Uncertainty Principle: An Approach to Enterprise-Wide Assessment of the DOD S&T Program

This study examines why the sum of all the reviews of the relevance, viability, and productivity of the S&T program of the DoD does not constitute an assessment of the entire DoD S&T enterprise and examines the prospects for rectifying this situation.

Aug. 1, 2006

Lee’s Mistake: Learning from the Decision to Order Pickett’s Charge

At the Battle of Gettysburg, Robert E. Lee made a mistake that doomed the hopes of the Confederate States of America to compel the United States to sue for peace. Why one of the great generals of his time made such a blunder continues to be a topic of research and intense debate. Lee said little at the time or afterward to justify his decision to launch what has become known as Pickett’s Charge, so analysis must be inferential and inconclusive. Our aim is to explain Lee’s fateful decision not with new facts but with new analytical methods to illuminate decisionmaking in combat.

Aug. 1, 2006

DTP-034: Solutions for Northern Kosovo: Lessons Learned in Mostar, Eastern Slavonia, and Brcko

This paper examines three similar cases to the issues in Kososvo that were managed by the international community. By looking at the results of these three cases a decade or more after they began, this paper attempts to shed light on the options for Mitrovica, Kosovo. In order to do this, members of the CTNSP staff traveled to these areas to gather firsthand information relating to this problem.

July 1, 2006

Countering Terrorism Across the Atlantic?

Differences in strategic vision and concepts of security are central to the U.S. and European Union (EU) approaches to counterterrorism. While the United States conceives of a war against terrorism, Europe does not. As a result of different perceptions of the threat, both sides of the Atlantic take divergent approaches to homeland security. Europeans tend to favor the use of a law enforcement strategy over a warfighting approach. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration believes that a quasi-militaristic, overtly proactive, and highly vigilant stance will serve as the best deterrent to future attacks. By their own standards, Europeans are doing more to counter terrorism since September 11 and even more since the attacks in Madrid (March 11, 2004) and in London (July 7, 2005); by U.S. standards, these measures sometimes appear inadequate. As a result, there are significant transatlantic divergences on the best methods for halting the spread of terrorism.

July 1, 2006

BATTLE WISE: Seeking Time-Information Superiority in Networked Warfare

This book is an inquiry into the possibility of improving the operational thinking and decisionmaking of U.S. military individuals, teams, and forces who fight for their nation.

July 1, 2006

Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: New Methods for a New Era

Most books on national security affairs focus on substantive issues, such as nuclear proliferation, arguing in favor of one policy or another. This book addresses something more basic: how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It illuminates how key methods of analysis can be employed, by experts and nonexperts, to focus widely, address small details, or do both at the same time. It provides an appraisal of methods that can be employed to analyze issues ranging from the lofty abstractions of national security policy and strategy to the concrete specifics of plans, programs, and budgets.

July 1, 2006

DTP-030: A New Conceptual Framework for Net-Centric, Enterprise-Wide, System-of-Systems Engineering

This paper presents a theoretical framework for thinking about system-of-systems (SOS) on a large scale, a net-centric approach to SOS engineering, and a way ahead for DoD. The theoretical framework defines the general characteristics of SOSs, and describes how these lead to underlying problems which address problems from integrated social, organizational, and technical perspectives.

July 1, 2006

DTP-031: An ICT Primer: Information and Communication Technologies for Civil-Military Coordination in Disaster Relief and Stabilization and Reconstruction

This primer presents current knowledge and best practices in creating a collaborative, civil-military, information environment to support data collection, communications, collaboration, and information-sharing needs in disaster situations and complex emergencies.

July 1, 2006

DTP-032: Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University. The paper describes the methodology underlying the software, and then provides an overview of three case studies that used the software.

July 1, 2006

DTP-033: Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Stinger and Javelin Missile Systems: Project Hindsight Revisited

This paper seeks to identify the Critical Technological Events (CTEs) in the development of the Stinger and Javelin missiles. It is the third paper in a series that, driven by importance of understanding past military technological successes to today’s defense science and technology (S&T) investment and management, examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into current U.S. Army weapon systems.

May 1, 2006

Transatlantic Homeland Defense

CTNSP/INSS Special Report NATO plays an essential role in defense of the transatlantic homeland from terrorism and other transnational threats, but it could do more, including in support of national, European Union, and Partner efforts to enhance societal security. This paper proposes an initiative to enhance NATO’s planning and capabilities in this area at the Alliance’s November 2006 Riga Summit. This back-to-basics approach is designed to ensure that NATO can deal effectively with new threats to the transatlantic homeland. it would also enhance NATO’s relevance in the eyes of the public on both sides of the Atlantic.

March 1, 2006

Creating a NATO Special Operations Force

In the post-9/11 security environment, special operations forces (SOF) have proven indispensable. SOF units are light, lethal, mobile, and easily networked with other forces. While the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have extensive SOF capabilities, these forces are not formally organized to collaborate with one another. There would be much to gain if U.S. and allied SOF trained to work together: national SOF assets would be improved, obstacles to effective combined operations would be removed, and a coherent Alliance capability would be readily available for NATO. The Alliance can focus and grow its SOF capabilities by providing a selective and small combined “inner core” of NATO special operations forces for operations, while using an outer network to expand and improve SOF cooperation with interested allies.

March 1, 2006

DTP-028: Bringing Defense into the Information Economy

This is an exploratory essay aimed at injecting new perspective and questions into the study of the fundamentals of defense economics. It is meant to start a “productive conversation” about the affordability of defense and the alignment of technology, economics, and grand strategy.

March 1, 2006

DTP-029: Cooperative Crisis Management and Avian Influenza: A Risk Assessment Guide for International Contagious Disease Prevention and Risk Mitigation

This paper proposes a risk assessment and mitigation strategy designed to give both national authorities and international organizations the diagnostic took needed to evaluate preparedness, identify country-level weaknesses, and prioritize scarce resources to combat avian influenza.

Feb. 1, 2006

Custer in Cyberspace

The combination of abundant networked information and fluid, unfamiliar situations in the current era makes it at once possible and imperative to improve decisionmaking in combat. The key to improvement is to integrate faster reasoning and more reliable intuition into a cognitive whole to achieve battle-wisdom. Although the technologies that both demand and facilitate battle- wisdom are new, military history holds lessons on combining reasoning and intuition in conditions of urgency, danger, and uncertainty.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-024: Extending the User’s Reach: Responsive Networking for Integrated Military Operations

The aim of this study is to identify a path for the U.S. DoD to improve the responsiveness of military information networks for joint warfighters. This is not a technical treatise about bits and bandwidth; it proposes no architecture or standards. Rather, it looks at how military-operational information requirements relate to national strategy and at how those requirements are set and met.

Feb. 1, 2006

DTP-025: Issues in Air Force Science and Technology Funding

This paper looks at several issues surrounding future Air Force S&T and offers some suggestions for the future. It also looks at the framework of Air Force science and technology and a long-term history of Air Force S&T funding.