July 1, 2005

The Changing Landscape of Defense Innovation

In a rapidly evolving business environment, many successful companies have transformed themselves by reexamining their core missions and competencies and exploiting innovation in nontraditional ways. General Electric still manufactures products but now identifies itself as a services company. Wal-Mart has become the premier retailer by capitalizing on its logistics and support systems. These two giants and other companies have realized that they can become more profitable by exploiting new regions of the business landscape.

June 1, 2005

DTP-014: Bayes, Bugs, and Bioterrorists: Lessons Learned from the Anthrax Attacks

This paper applies the framework to managing the risks of anthrax to provide an illustrative example which demonstrates that by organizing information at this level, decision makers can quickly understand the critical connections between different options. It suggests the need for the creation of a comprehensive national management plan.

May 1, 2005

Iraq and After: Taking the Right Lessons for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction

This paper primarily focuses on Iraq; however, it also seeks to draw lessons from experiences in libya and Iran to understand better how proliferators think about WMD; the challenges in assessing the status and sophistication of developing world WMD programs; the contours of the emerging international proliferation landscape; and the efficacy of various policy instruments available to the United States for dealing with these so-called ultimate weapons.

May 1, 2005

A New Military Framework for NATO

Although Americans and Europeans do not always agree on political strategies in the Middle East, they have a compelling reason to reach an accord on the need to strengthen North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military forces for future operations in that region and elsewhere. If adequate military capabilities are lacking, the Alliance will not be able to act even when its political leaders agree on the need to do so. But if it creates such capabilities, it will be able to act either ad hoc or across the board if a common political strategy eventually were to emerge.

May 1, 2005

DTP-013: A Primer on the Detection of Nuclear and Radiological Weapons

This study upon which this report is based was undertaken because of the large and growing importance of detection technologies for nuclear or radiological weapons of mass destruction (NRWMD). While this report will focus on detection of NRWMD, the NRWMD problem does not have a purely technical solution and th reasons for this will be become clear in this report.

March 1, 2005

DTP-012: Strengthening the Army R&D Program

These two papers consider models for managing the Army laboratories, including the mode of operations and the means by which the Army can be assured that its technical enterprise is state of the art. Taken together these papers present opportunities to move the Army S&T program ahead without disrupting the current operations of the laboratories.

Feb. 1, 2005

DTP-010: Transforming the Reserve Component: Four Essays

This volume contains four essays on various aspects of the Reserve Component published at a time when Reserves are serving overseas at historically high rates and when new missions like homeland security demand their attention. In these essays, the authors explore ways in which the Reserve Component might be transformed to face these challenges.

Feb. 1, 2005

DTP-011: Pre-Conflict Management Tools: Winning the Peace

This paper addresses the Pre-Conflict Management Tools (PCMT) Program which was developed to transform how intelligence, policy, and operational decisionmakers interact when confronting highly complex strategic problems. The first half of this paper provides readers a context for why the PCMT program is imortant for incoportating social science models into the RCC and interagency planning processes. The second half provides an overview of the structure, methods, and technologies of PCMT.

Jan. 1, 2005

DTP-008: Battle-Wise: Gaining Advantage in Networked Warfare

This paper summarizes a forthcoming National Defense University book suggesting why and how the U.S. and allied forces should improve the cognitive faculties of military decisionmakers to attain new operational and strategic advantages or to avoid the loss of advantages they now enjoy.

Jan. 1, 2005

DTP-009: Container Security: A Proposal for a Comprehensive Code of Conduct

This paper recommends the development and adoption of a comprehensive Code of Conduct that would be globally recognized and enforced for the improved security in the shipping trade, including some procedures on containers, which has become an important component of global commerce.

Dec. 1, 2004

Eliminating Adversary WMD: What's at Stake?

This Occasional Paper discusses the challenges and the lessons learned during Operation Iraqi Freedom concerning WMD elimination.

Dec. 1, 2004

Military Transformation and Joint Experimentation: Two Views from Above

Military transformation— “a process that shapes the changing nature of military competition and cooperation through new combinations of concepts, capabilities, people and organizations”— is on the minds and agendas of everyone dealing with the military. Many people talk about transformation; the two authors of this Defense Horizons have done something about it. In fact, they are among the few who have been responsible for shaping and implementing the concept. To get a better idea of what goes into this process, particularly the element of joint experimentation that is helping to identify and define the nature of change, Defense Horizons presents the views of two of America’s leading military officers who have been involved in the process.

Nov. 15, 2004

DTP-007: Shedding Light on the Battlefield: Tactical Applications of Photonic Technology

This paper addresses the growing availiability and dependence on tactical sensor technology on bandwidth for the battlfield and recommends the use of light, or photons, to transmit information. It highlights the advantages of photonics in three applications and discusses the economical and technological advantages for increasing the use of photonics for the U.S. government and military.

Nov. 1, 2004

DTP-006: Shaping Future Defense Budgets

This paper assesses key issues in the U.S. defense spending in the next decade and is intended to serve as a guide to analyzing the fiscal year 2006 budget submission.

Oct. 1, 2004

DTP-005: Bridging the Gap: European C4ISR Capabilities and Transatlantic Interoperability

This study analyzes the developed and planned C4ISR capabilities of seven European countries and examines the extent to which advanced C4ISR and network doctrines figure in the defense planning of these nations and explore the content of interoperability within and between these national forces and between these forces and those of the United States.

Sept. 1, 2004

Needed—A NATO Stabilization and Reconstruction Force

At the Istanbul Summit in June 2004 , NATO endorsed the further transformation of military capabilities to make them “more modern, more usable, and more deployable to carry out the full range of Alliance missions.” The Istanbul Communiqué especially called for continuing progress on the NATO Response Force and the Prague Capabilities Commitments.

Sept. 1, 2004

DTP-004: Cooperative Threat Reduction for a New Era

The purpose of this study is to review the techniques developed and used by the Nunn-Lugar program to dat, including some closely related activities, and to recommend specific ways in which these techniques could be applied on a global basis to eliminate the various types of nuclear threats faced by the United States.

July 1, 2004

Defense Laboratories and Military Capability: Headed for a BRACdown?

For 150 years, military laboratories have made vital contributions to national defense. In recent years, they have been significantly reduced in number by several rounds of base realignment and closure (BRAC). Even so, they remain the primary source of internal technical competence within the Department of Defense (DOD). Their capability in that role will depend on how DOD answers two questions. Is there excess laboratory capacity - too many laboratories relative to forecasts of future force structure? What is their military value - their likely contribution to the future operational needs of warfighters.

July 1, 2004

Global Networks: Emerging Constraints on Strategy

If current trends in communications technologies and services persist, the United States will be hard pressed to keep a strategic advantage in network capability. The international telecommunications system is rebalancing into four major centers of influence and innovation. Within ten years, Europe, India, and China will have the same technological and innovative capabilities in telecommunications as the United States. This shift is problematic for U.S. national security, because the global telecommunications infrastructure is becoming an important strategic battlespace—the physical battlefield of information warfare. Understanding the dynamic of regional balancing is critical to shaping U.S. responses.

July 1, 2004

NATO Technology: from Gap to Divergence?

A widening technology gap between the United States and other NATO members will challenge the ability of NATO to function as a cohesive, multinational force. Over several decades, great disparities in the funding of defense research and technology by NATO members has produced a widening technological gap that threatens to become a divergence - a condition from which the Alliance may not be able to recover. The technology gap, in turn, is creating a capabilities gap that undercuts the operational effectiveness of NATO forces, including the new NATO Response Force.

July 1, 2004

Alternative Approaches to Army Transformation

Army transformation is an attempt to provide future forces with enhanced capabilities in lethality, survivability, and mobility, both strategic and tactical. Alternatives to achieving these goals differ in emphasis on weight and reliance on technology. That is, transformation plans differ if the objective is weight reduction as opposed to weight redistribution. In one approach, platform weight is reduced to meet mobility goals. However, shedding weight has implications for platform survivability and lethality; previous attempts to design a single platform that is simultaneously lethal, mobile, and survivable have not done so satisfactorily. Thus, advances in materials are required to insure the survivability of a lightweight platform. Advances in network technology are also required to make the platform more aware of its environment. The immaturity of these technologies increases the risks inherent in transformation based strictly on platform characteristics.

July 1, 2004

In the Tracks of Tamerlane: Central Asia’s Path to the 21st Century

Central Asia remains a relatively overlooked region compared to other parts of the world, yet energy reserves of gas and oil and recent focus on the region’s terrorist presence has made Central Asia increasingly important to understand. This book examines the course of events in Central Asia since independence, through the eyes of 22 specialists in the region. A product of the Pre-Conflict Management Tools project launched in April of 2003 by CTNSP, the purpose of the book is to increase understanding of the challenges faced by the region, with the goal of preventing or limiting the potential for conflict brought about by these challenges.

June 20, 2004

DTP-003: Who You Gonna Call? Responding to a Medical Emergency with the Strategic National Stockpile

This paper reviews the history and current status of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), provies an overview of its role in incident response, and reports on the testing of SNS deployment in recent terrorism exercises. It also explores regulatory and legal issues that surround the use of SNS and its importance to the U.S. military.

June 15, 2004

DTP-002: Hometown Hospitals: The Weakest Link? Bioterrorism Readiness in America’s Rural Hospitals

The delivery of medical care to infected populations and the containment of disearse spidmics

June 1, 2004

DTP-001: Looking for Trouble: A Policymaker’s Guide to Biosensing

A publication written to inform the non-technical policymaker to assist in reaching important decisions to prevent bioterrorism and biological attacks. In addition it presents results of an extensive statistical study examining the utility of a system-of-systems approach to identifying a bioattack.

April 1, 2004

Responsive Space and Strategic Information

American strategists face a daunting challenge; they must assure and defend American and allied interests, induce and encourage international security cooperation, and deter, dissuade, and defeat a diverse range of potential adversaries. This challenge has been addressed by senior political leadership in recent policy statements, such as the Nuclear Posture Review of 2002, and in the formation of an expanded U.S. Strategic Command, but this vision has not yet taken root in the Department of Defense components responsible for providing operational capability.

April 1, 2004

The Science and Engineering Workforce and National Security

Trends in the American science and engineering (S&E) workforce and national research and development (R&D) funding patterns and priorities have troubling implications for the economic and national security of our nation.

April 1, 2004

Transforming for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Through superiority, recent military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq were exceptionally quick and successful in defeating the enemy. However, the Armed Forces were not adequately prepared to respond to lawlessness, destruction of civilian infrastructure, and attacks on coalition forces from unconventional insurgents. It is imperative to transform how the U.S. military prepares for and executes stabilization and reconstruction (S&R) operations.

Jan. 6, 2004

Effects of Directed Energy Weapons

Effects of Directed Energy Weapons is an encyclopedic treatment of how Directed Energy Weapons work, how the energy of these weapons is propagated to the target, and how the weapon/beam-target interaction creates effects (damage) in the target. This is a technical exposition, written at the undergraduate physics and engineering level that could serve either as a text book or as a reference text for technical practitioners. The text addresses Kinetic Energy Weapons in addition to Lasers, Microwaves and Particle Beams.

Jan. 1, 2004

Dirty Bombs: The Threat Revisited

Nuclear radiation, invisible and detectable only with special instruments, has the power to terrify—in part because of its association with nuclear weapons—and to become an instrument of terrorists. Radioactive isotopes can be spread widely with or without high explosives by a radiological dispersion device (RDD) or so-called dirty bomb. This paper provides a general overview of the nature of RDDs and sources of material for them and estimates the effects of an assault, including casualties and economic consequences. Many experts believe that an RDD is an economic weapon capable of inflicting devastating damage on the United States. This paper is in full agreement with that assessment and makes some quantitative estimates of the magnitude of economic disruption that can be produced by various levels of attack. It is also generally believed that even a very large RDD is unlikely to cause many human casualties, either immediately or over the long term. A careful examination of the consequences of the tragic accident in Goiânia, Brazil, however, shows that some forms of radiological attack could kill tens or hundreds of people and sicken hundreds or thousands. Nevertheless, contrary to popular belief, RDDs are not weapons of mass destruction.

Jan. 1, 2004

XVIII Airborne Corps: Spearhead of Military Transformation

War transforms armies. Combat accelerates transformation by moving it out of the realm of academic debate and endless speculation about the future to a pragmatic approach focused on fielding new capabilities within new combat formations as soon as possible. In war, transformation means conserving equipment and operational methods that are still relevant while incorporating new technologies, tactics, and organizations that enable victory. It is nearly impossible to replicate in peacetime training the true conditions of land warfare—ambiguity, uncertainty, and above all terror, killing, and exhaustion. For the Army, the best opportunity to transform involves parallel evolution, a method that moves new technologies into combat formations today and explores what the troops will actually do with them in action. With a conflict in progress, this approach is better than trying to predict future uses in an inflexible operational requirements document developed in isolation from the field environment.

Dec. 2, 2003

Changing Mindsets to Transform Security: Leader Development for an Unpredictable and Complex World

This book is a compilation of papers and discussions from the Third International Transformation Conference and Workshop on Leader Development in Washington, DC, on June 19-20, 2013. The event was sponsored by the NATO Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, hosted at the National Defense University, and supported by the International Transformation Chairs Network.

Dec. 1, 2003

Commercial Information Technology Possibilities: Perspectives on its Future Role in Military Operations as Inspired by Visits to Selected Sites

There has been a substantial amount of discussion in the DOD community about the availability of commercially funded R&D products capable of supporting ongoing and anticipated military operations. Those who doubt the availability of such technological products point to the past necessity of military R&D investment to assure American technological superiority. Pundits who hold that commercial investments are currently producing products relevant to military operations point to the incredible growth of various consumer markets, e.g. electronics, telecommunications and personal computers. This report describes the efforts of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) to assess the availability of Information Technology to support current and future military operations. In short, we wanted to consider whether there exist technological winners—or keepers—derived from research and development (R&D) investments initiated and sustained by private-sector firms. Based on the case studies derived from this study’s purposive sample, we believe strongly that currently available technological products can easily be adopted by users and institutions within DOD. Moreover, we assert that these technologies will be able to support future operations effectively.

Nov. 1, 2003

Hydrogen as a Fuel for DOD

Energy issues have been at the center of the national security debate for some time, and the current situation in the Persian Gulf underscores the strategic importance of sound energy policy. Activities or developments—geopolitical, environmental, technological, or regulatory—that materially change the energy security equation are, naturally, of great interest to the Department of Defense (DOD). The announcement by President George Bush in his State of the Union address that he intends to accelerate research and development (R&D) for hydrogen-powered vehicles toward the objective of total U.S. energy independence has great potential impact on DOD. This paper examines a number of technical issues connected with energy independence through hydrogen and how they might affect DOD. We conclude that the move to a hydrogen economy will be a massive undertaking, requiring large investments and decades to accomplish. We will show that, with few exceptions, pure hydrogen is not a viable fuel for DOD missions, primarily because of the DOD requirement for compact, high-volumetric energy density power sources. As a result, to meet its unique needs, DOD likely will have to increase its dependence on nuclear power and support R&D that investigates ways to use hydrogen to synthesize hydrocarbon fuels in an environmentally compliant fashion. Several suggestions and recommendations will be made in this regard.

Nov. 1, 2003

Alternative Governance: A Tool forMilitary Laboratory Reform

Throughout the Cold War, the United States maintained an edge over adversaries by fielding technologically superior warfighting systems. This strategy depended on a strong research and development (R&D) effort in both the public and private sectors, and the community of military laboratories in the Department of Defense played an essential role in the overall effort. Because of the importance of these labs during the Cold War, defense planners continually focused on ways to improve and strengthen them.

Oct. 1, 2003

Dual-Track Transformation for NATO

Recent strains between the United States and some European allies have raised concerns that NATO is becoming irrelevant or even headed toward extinction. A breakup of NATO would severely damage the United States and Europe as well as prospects for global peace. As an urgent priority, NATO must restore its unity and strengthen its capacity for common action in the Greater Middle East. But how can this goal be achieved in today’s climate?

Oct. 1, 2003

Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military

Most debates and studies addressing potential climate change have focused on the buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. But this “slow ramp”1 climate change scenario ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has become much colder, warmer, wetter, or drier—in time spans as short as three to 10 years.

Sept. 1, 2003

A New PPBS Process to Advance Transformation

The Office of the Secretary of Defense has released its first Transformational Planning Guidance to steer the Armed Forces through a joint process of transformation. This is a strong step in the direction of making transformation and innovation visible parts of the defense planning process, but more is needed. The planning, programming, and budgeting system (PPBS) through which the Department of Defense (DOD) prioritizes its programs and resources has to be restructured to facilitate transformation and innovation, not to obstruct them. DOD has begun a trial resource allocation process that will reduce the burden of repetitive report generation that has drained time and energy away from innovative, strategic change. This process gives senior leadership an opportunity to shift its attention from wrestling with budget detail to developing initiatives to transform U.S. forces. However, this change will not happen of its own accord. A set of proposals that would enable senior leadership to move its focus from the back end (budgeting) of the resource allocation process to the front end (planning and idea generation) is presented below. A review of how the PPBS has evolved is presented to highlight the need to target specific parts for restructuring.

Sept. 1, 2003

Technology, Transformation, and New Operational Concepts

Throughout history, technology has been central to warfare, often giving qualitative advantages to numerically inferior forces. Typically, the rate of technology development has been relatively slow and the introduction of new weapons systems even slower, which has allowed evolutionary development of operational concepts. Today’s accelerated pace of technology development no longer allows sequential development of operational concepts. In addition, the current global political environment has placed demands upon the military that range from engaging in major regional conflicts to stabilization, reconstruction and peacekeeping, all creating a continuous need for flexible, adaptive systems and new concepts of operation.

Aug. 1, 2003

Catastrophic Bioterrorism – What Is To Be Done?

It is now widely recognized that terrorists may inflict great trauma upon us by using biological weapons against America’s civilian populations. There is, however, no common perception of how this problem should be defined and countered. In the language of today’s business consultants, neither the “problem space” nor “the solution space” has been well mapped. In military terms, we have no established a method of focusing our efforts, testing alternative strategies, setting requirements, and determining priorities. This paper is designed to show how we can do these things.

July 1, 2003

Moore’s Law: A Department of Defense Perspective

The past 50 years have seen enormous advances in electronics and the systems that depend upon or exploit them. The Department of Defense (DOD) has been an important driver in, and a profound beneficiary of, these advances, which have come so regularly that many observers expect them to continue indefinitely. However, as Jean de la Fontaine said, “In all matters one must consider the end.” A substantial literature debates the ultimate limits to progress in solid-state electronics as they apply to the current paradigm for silicon integrated circuit (IC) technology. The outcome of this debate will have a profound societal impact because of the key role that silicon ICs play in computing, information, and sensor technologies.

July 1, 2003

Beyond the Mainland: Chinese Telecommunications Expansion

In most countries, expansion of the telecommunications network beyond national borders has followed diplomatic and business expansion. On this basis, an informed practitioner might be expecting the Chinese telecommunications system to spread beyond its borders sometime in the later part of this decade. However, Chinese authorities have been quick to act upon a series of unexpected opportunities for acquiring international telecommunications assets. This article discusses the international security implications of Chinese telecommunications expansion.

June 1, 2003

Transforming NATO Command and Control for Future Missions

No military function is more critical to operational success than effective command and control (C2). There also is no more daunting military function to get right when it comes to the employment of complex multinational formations in the fast-paced arena of crisis response. Since the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—unique as an alliance with a permanent standing C2 structure—has ventured into a broader spectrum of missions and across a wider geographical area of operations, posing far greater C2 challenges than the single- mission, fixed-territory defense of the past. Threats to NATO interests have increased, demanding military structures and capabilities that can be employed on shorter notice and further outside NATO territory. At the same time, more sophisticated information-based battle systems and technologies are driving the need for increasingly interoperable forces. A key factor for success in this new environment will be a more agile, flexible, and responsive NATO C2 architecture for the 21st century.

May 1, 2003

The Air Force: Science, Technology, and Transformation

A unique connectivity exists in the Air Force between science, technology, and transformation. From the defining moment of powered flight in 1903 to the creation of the Air Force as a separate service in 1947 to the present, these three elements have been continuously linked and undoubtedly will remain so.

May 1, 2003

Transformation and the Defense Industrial Base: A New Model

American force transformation is about building a new expeditionary model with flexible, modular forces that can be managed on a global basis to protect U.S. interests. Breaking the tyranny of geography on military forces is a key aspect to change.

March 1, 2003

Biology and the Battlefield

The military and the life sciences have been intertwined throughout history. Biology has often been a source of offensive weapons, ranging from the hurling of plague victims over the walls of Kaffa (which probably started the 14th-century Black Death) to the anthrax attacks of fall 2001.

March 1, 2003

NATO Defense Science and Technology

The accord establishing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 provided the framework for the greatest international mechanism ever in defense science and technology. From its earliest days, NATO involvement in science and technology has sought to build cooperation and promote security and stability. Today, the central element of the NATO defense science and technology program is the Research and Technology Organization (RTO), which provides the best basis for collaboration among the most technologically advanced countries in the world. Through this body, alliance nations plan and execute activities that cover the full spectrum of technologies vital to current and future security.

Feb. 1, 2003

Decision Dominance: Exploiting Transformational Asymmetries

This paper introduces a new operational concept—decision dominance— to help guide the strategic employment of U.S. forces in wartime. This concept is not a replacement for existing paradigms. If added to the current list, however, it may better illuminate how American forces can operate effectively in ways that will achieve their political-military goals more decisively in future wars.

Jan. 1, 2003

The Silence of the Labs

Something important to the Nation’s defense has vanished, yet the top Pentagon brass never noticed. Not the stuff of headlines, this loss would not arouse public concern, especially during these times of terrorist massacres, anthrax attacks, corporate scandal, and war. Nevertheless, like the miner’s canary that is first to die with the rush of an ill wind, this loss is a warning.

Dec. 1, 2002

The Emergence of Mini UAVs for Military Applications

The successes of the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Afghanistan most likely will accelerate the introduction of UAVs into the military force structure. What emerged in Afghanistan was a tiered observation-detection-targeting system consisting of spacecraft, the Global Hawk UAV, the Predator UAV, and often a spotter on the ground. However, in complex terrain, as in Afghanistan, and in urban situations, airborne assets may be needed much closer to the ground. A low-altitude tier of UAVs— mini UAVs—could serve such a purpose.