Oct. 1, 2003

Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military

Most debates and studies addressing potential climate change have focused on the buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. But this “slow ramp”1 climate change scenario ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has become much colder, warmer, wetter, or drier—in time spans as short as three to 10 years.

Sept. 1, 2003

A New PPBS Process to Advance Transformation

The Office of the Secretary of Defense has released its first Transformational Planning Guidance to steer the Armed Forces through a joint process of transformation. This is a strong step in the direction of making transformation and innovation visible parts of the defense planning process, but more is needed. The planning, programming, and budgeting system (PPBS) through which the Department of Defense (DOD) prioritizes its programs and resources has to be restructured to facilitate transformation and innovation, not to obstruct them. DOD has begun a trial resource allocation process that will reduce the burden of repetitive report generation that has drained time and energy away from innovative, strategic change. This process gives senior leadership an opportunity to shift its attention from wrestling with budget detail to developing initiatives to transform U.S. forces. However, this change will not happen of its own accord. A set of proposals that would enable senior leadership to move its focus from the back end (budgeting) of the resource allocation process to the front end (planning and idea generation) is presented below. A review of how the PPBS has evolved is presented to highlight the need to target specific parts for restructuring.

Sept. 1, 2003

Technology, Transformation, and New Operational Concepts

Throughout history, technology has been central to warfare, often giving qualitative advantages to numerically inferior forces. Typically, the rate of technology development has been relatively slow and the introduction of new weapons systems even slower, which has allowed evolutionary development of operational concepts. Today’s accelerated pace of technology development no longer allows sequential development of operational concepts. In addition, the current global political environment has placed demands upon the military that range from engaging in major regional conflicts to stabilization, reconstruction and peacekeeping, all creating a continuous need for flexible, adaptive systems and new concepts of operation.

July 1, 2003

Moore’s Law: A Department of Defense Perspective

The past 50 years have seen enormous advances in electronics and the systems that depend upon or exploit them. The Department of Defense (DOD) has been an important driver in, and a profound beneficiary of, these advances, which have come so regularly that many observers expect them to continue indefinitely. However, as Jean de la Fontaine said, “In all matters one must consider the end.” A substantial literature debates the ultimate limits to progress in solid-state electronics as they apply to the current paradigm for silicon integrated circuit (IC) technology. The outcome of this debate will have a profound societal impact because of the key role that silicon ICs play in computing, information, and sensor technologies.

July 1, 2003

Beyond the Mainland: Chinese Telecommunications Expansion

In most countries, expansion of the telecommunications network beyond national borders has followed diplomatic and business expansion. On this basis, an informed practitioner might be expecting the Chinese telecommunications system to spread beyond its borders sometime in the later part of this decade. However, Chinese authorities have been quick to act upon a series of unexpected opportunities for acquiring international telecommunications assets. This article discusses the international security implications of Chinese telecommunications expansion.

June 1, 2003

Transforming NATO Command and Control for Future Missions

No military function is more critical to operational success than effective command and control (C2). There also is no more daunting military function to get right when it comes to the employment of complex multinational formations in the fast-paced arena of crisis response. Since the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—unique as an alliance with a permanent standing C2 structure—has ventured into a broader spectrum of missions and across a wider geographical area of operations, posing far greater C2 challenges than the single- mission, fixed-territory defense of the past. Threats to NATO interests have increased, demanding military structures and capabilities that can be employed on shorter notice and further outside NATO territory. At the same time, more sophisticated information-based battle systems and technologies are driving the need for increasingly interoperable forces. A key factor for success in this new environment will be a more agile, flexible, and responsive NATO C2 architecture for the 21st century.

May 1, 2003

The Air Force: Science, Technology, and Transformation

A unique connectivity exists in the Air Force between science, technology, and transformation. From the defining moment of powered flight in 1903 to the creation of the Air Force as a separate service in 1947 to the present, these three elements have been continuously linked and undoubtedly will remain so.

May 1, 2003

Transformation and the Defense Industrial Base: A New Model

American force transformation is about building a new expeditionary model with flexible, modular forces that can be managed on a global basis to protect U.S. interests. Breaking the tyranny of geography on military forces is a key aspect to change.

March 1, 2003

Biology and the Battlefield

The military and the life sciences have been intertwined throughout history. Biology has often been a source of offensive weapons, ranging from the hurling of plague victims over the walls of Kaffa (which probably started the 14th-century Black Death) to the anthrax attacks of fall 2001.

March 1, 2003

NATO Defense Science and Technology

The accord establishing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 provided the framework for the greatest international mechanism ever in defense science and technology. From its earliest days, NATO involvement in science and technology has sought to build cooperation and promote security and stability. Today, the central element of the NATO defense science and technology program is the Research and Technology Organization (RTO), which provides the best basis for collaboration among the most technologically advanced countries in the world. Through this body, alliance nations plan and execute activities that cover the full spectrum of technologies vital to current and future security.

Feb. 1, 2003

Decision Dominance: Exploiting Transformational Asymmetries

This paper introduces a new operational concept—decision dominance— to help guide the strategic employment of U.S. forces in wartime. This concept is not a replacement for existing paradigms. If added to the current list, however, it may better illuminate how American forces can operate effectively in ways that will achieve their political-military goals more decisively in future wars.

Jan. 1, 2003

The Silence of the Labs

Something important to the Nation’s defense has vanished, yet the top Pentagon brass never noticed. Not the stuff of headlines, this loss would not arouse public concern, especially during these times of terrorist massacres, anthrax attacks, corporate scandal, and war. Nevertheless, like the miner’s canary that is first to die with the rush of an ill wind, this loss is a warning.

Dec. 1, 2002

The Emergence of Mini UAVs for Military Applications

The successes of the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Afghanistan most likely will accelerate the introduction of UAVs into the military force structure. What emerged in Afghanistan was a tiered observation-detection-targeting system consisting of spacecraft, the Global Hawk UAV, the Predator UAV, and often a spotter on the ground. However, in complex terrain, as in Afghanistan, and in urban situations, airborne assets may be needed much closer to the ground. A low-altitude tier of UAVs— mini UAVs—could serve such a purpose.

Oct. 1, 2002

From Petro to Agro: Seeds of a New Economy

This paper describes the increasing importance of agriculture to defense, as a part of the Nation’s industrial base, offering the most economical way to produce large quantities of biological materials. It explains why agricultural fields will assume the same significance as oil fields.

Oct. 1, 2002

Effects-Based Operations: Building the Analytic Tools

This paper describes effects-based operations (EBO), an effort to leverage American military and technical might with enormous advantages in computation, information, and analysis in order to achieve political-military outcomes in a new strategic environment.

Oct. 1, 2002

High-Energy Lasers: Technical, Operational, and Policy Issues

This paper considers the unique and promising attributes of high energy laser (HEL) weapon systems and examines the technical challenges, at both the system and component level, that need to be overcome for an HEL to be competitive against alternative weapon systems. The policy and operational challenges are also highlighted.

Aug. 1, 2002

Computer Simulation and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

The authors believe that the ASCI (Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative) computational capabilities will enable nuclear weapon designers to draw on archived data from more than 1,000 nuclear tests to adapt proven designs to future mission requirements. Furthermore, through extensive computer modeling and nonnuclear testing, new nuclear weapons could be designed and introduced into the stockpile, so long as the new weapons used design concepts similar to those proven in nuclear tests.

Aug. 1, 2002

The Virtual Border: Countering Seaborne Container Terrorism

This paper discusses the implementation of a virtual border security program that reduces the risk of terrorism form seaborne containers beginning at their foreign point of origin. The authors explain the container domain, means of detection of various container threats, and ways to implement security measures.

Aug. 1, 2002

Biological Weapons: Toward a Threat Reduction Strategy

The authors discuss the threat of biological weapons to military forces and operations and outline the connection of biologicla weapons to the homeland security challenge.

June 1, 2002

Toward Missile Defenses from the Sea

The authors argue for the sea basing of national defenses against intercontinental ballistic missiles and for the construction of a new type of ship designed solely for that purpose.

April 1, 2002

Relevancy and Risk: The U.S. Army and Future Combat Systems

The authors provide recommendations in the development of initial versions of FCS for low-intensity conflicts as technologies mature and evaluates the Army’s goals for transformation.

April 1, 2002

The Airborne Laser from Theory to Reality: An Insider’s Account

Albert Einstein spent World War I in Berlin, where he developed a theory that described electromagnetic radiation in equilibrium with atoms that could emit and absorb radiation. The innovation in Einstein’s work, which was published in 1916 and 1917, was that he used the newly developed quantum theory to obtain his results.

April 1, 2002

Computer Games and the Military: Two Views

J.C. Herz provides an industry look at gaming technology and culture and suggests ways in which commercial experience can be applied to the military; Michael Macedonia responds to Herz’s analysis and provides a military gamer’s perspective on computer games and the military.

March 1, 2002

Rediscovering the Infantry in a Time of Transformation

This paper gives reasons and ways to transform and recapitalize U.S. infantry.

March 1, 2002

Nonlethal Capabilities: Realizing the Opportunities

This paper seeks to justify the pursuit of nonlethal capabilities, addressing the challenges and opportunities of such technologies.

March 1, 2002

Small Security: Nanotechnology and Future Defense

This paper describes how advancements is nanotechnology will feed back into conventional industry and how it will alter capability and shape defense strategy.

Feb. 1, 2002

Global Trade: America’s Achilles’ Heel

This paper argues for the use of maritime domain awareness (MDA) to better protect the Nation without sacrificing economic vitality or overwhelming government budgets. Specifically, MDA relies upon exploiting available information to discern threats and concentrate resources to stop them.

Dec. 1, 2001

Current Export Policies: Trick or Treat?

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Nov. 1, 2001

Adapting Forces to a New Era: Ten Transforming Concepts

The authors outline a set of new operational concepts that build highly capable forces whose mastery of high-tech warfighting will allow decisive victories against new threats and well-armed opponents.

Oct. 1, 2001

Maritime Access: Do Defenders Hold all the Cards?

The author describes the issue of maritime access for the Armed Forces.

Oct. 1, 2001

UCAVs-Technological, Policy, and Operational Challenges

The author explains the use of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), its challenges, policy issues, and operational considerations.

Sept. 1, 2001

Resurrecting Transformation for the Post-Industrial Era

The author proposes recommendations for how the Armed Forces can constantly to transform itself to become more responsive and effective to modern threats.

June 1, 2001

Managing Change: Capability, Adaptability, and Transformation

Authors discuss the threefold challenge of capability, adaptability, and transformation in change and military modernization.