Dec. 1, 2011
The Emergence of China in the Middle East
During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes
that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This
commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on
for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways,
the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between
two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
July 1, 2011
Countering the Lord’s Resistance Army in Central Africa
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is one of Africa’s most brutal
militia forces. It has plagued Central Africa, particularly northern
Uganda, for over two decades. The group’s tactics provide textbook
examples of war crimes and crimes against humanity. When attacking civilians,
the LRA instills fear by selecting random individuals for brutal executions.
Children are abducted to serve as porters, sex slaves, and new militia.
In order to indoctrinate child soldiers, young abductees are routinely forced
to kill their own family members and other children, or be murdered themselves.
Anyone caught trying to escape from the LRA is summarily executed.
By contrast with other African rebel groups, which occasionally adopt such
brutal tactics, the LRA has conducted such atrocities on a systematic and
Chinese Military Transparency: Evaluating the 2010 Defense White Paper
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Council Information Office
released the seventh edition of its biennial defense white paper,
“China’s National Defense in 2010,” on March 31, 2011. This document
aims to communicate the latest information on China’s military development,
strategy, capabilities, and intentions. China began publishing defense
white papers in 1998, partly as a means of increasing transparency in response to
regional concerns about the growing capabilities and actions of the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA). Despite the systematic release of these documents, many
of China’s neighbors and other regional powers continue to express concerns
about China’s lack of military transparency. The Chinese maintain that they are
becoming more open over time and highlight the importance of transparency
about strategic intentions rather than capabilities.
The Evolving Threat of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
The United States faces an important strategic question in northwest Africa:
what level of activity by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
would constitute a sufficient threat to U.S. national security interests
to warrant a more aggressive political, intelligence, military, and law enforcement
response? AQIM already poses the greatest immediate threat of transnational terrorism
in the region, and its operational range and sophistication continue to expand.
Since 2007, the group has professed its loyalty to Osama bin Laden and al
Qaeda’s senior leadership and claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks in the
subregion. These attacks have included the use of suicide bombers, improvised
explosive devices, kidnapping operations, and assassinations.
April 1, 2011
Iran’s Islamic Revolution: Lessons for the Arab Spring of 2011?
The Islamic Revolution surprised senior U.S. policymakers as
well as the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. On the eve
of revolution, Iran—a key U.S. ally—seemed relatively stable
despite bouts of urban terrorism in the early and mid-1970s. At the first
signs of escalating unrest in early 1978, neither Iranian nor U.S. officials
considered the possibility that Iran’s armed forces, the largest and most
modern in the region (next to those of Israel), would prove unable to deal
with whatever trouble lay ahead. The fall of the Shah a year later, therefore,
raised searching questions regarding the role of the armed forces during
the crisis and its failure to quash the revolution. The recent emergence of
popular protest movements that have overthrown authoritarian regimes
in Tunisia and Egypt—and that are challenging similar regimes in Libya,
Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria—has revived memories of the Shah and his fall.
These developments have again raised questions regarding the role of armed
forces during revolutions and whether Iran’s experience during the Islamic
Revolution and after holds relevant lessons for current developments in the
March 1, 2011
Brazil and the United States: The Need for Strategic Engagement
Washington’s identification of Brazil with Latin America and the
Third World hampers its appreciation of Brazil’s power and importance
to the United States. It is true that Brazil is geographically
part of Latin America, and it is also true that Brazil, a founder of the Group
of 77, was, with India, among the original leaders of the “Third World.”
Feb. 1, 2011
Finland, Sweden, and NATO: From “Virtual” to Formal Allies?
The “Open Door” policy of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) has been an article of faith for Allies and aspirants alike for
more than a decade. Its most recent formulation, approved at the November
2010 Lisbon Summit, states: “The door to NATO membership remains
fully open to all European democracies which share the values of our Alliance,
which are willing and able to assume the responsibilities and obligations of membership,
and whose inclusion can contribute to common security and stability.”
European Energy Security: Reducing Volatility of Ukraine-Russia Natural Gas Pricing Disputes
On January 7, 2009, the existing energy relationship among Europe, Russia, and Ukraine broke down over a natural gas dispute, just as it had done 3 years earlier. Amid subzero temperatures in many parts of Europe, Russia turned off its gas supply to Ukraine, causing shortages in more than 20 European countries. Thousands across the continent were left in the dark, and government services were closed.1 While the flow of gas was eventually restored, Russian gas disputes with Ukraine continue, and the prospect of another Gazprom shutoff has become an annual event for European consumers. Despite earlier indications that another breakdown in negotiations would lead to blackouts in Europe early in 2010, the potential crisis was averted via a Russia-Ukraine deal that restructured earlier payment and pricing arrangements.2 However, it is doubtful that Ukraine can continue timely payments for its domestic gas consumption and maintain its own pipeline infrastructure. Fundamental changes to Russia-Ukraine energy transport agreements are coming.
Conventional Prompt Global Strike: Strategic Asset or Unusable Liability?
The Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) concept calls for a
U.S. capability to deliver conventional strikes anywhere in the world
in approximately an hour. The logic of the CPGS concept is straightforward.
The United States has global security commitments to deter and respond
to a diverse spectrum of threats, ranging from terrorist organizations to
near-peer competitors. The United States might need to strike a time-sensitive
target protected by formidable air defenses or located deep inside enemy territory.
Small, high-value targets might pop up without warning in remote or
sensitive areas, potentially precluding the United States from responding to the
situation by employing other conventional weapons systems, deploying Special
Operations Forces (SOF), or relying on the host country.
Small Nuclear Reactors for Military Installations: Capabilities, Costs, and Technological Implications
In recent years, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has become increasingly
interested in the potential of small (less than 300 megawatts
electric [MWe]) nuclear reactors for military use.1 DOD’s attention to
small reactors stems mainly from two critical vulnerabilities it has identified in
its infrastructure and operations: the dependence of U.S. military bases on the
fragile civilian electrical grid, and the challenge of safely and reliably supplying
energy to troops in forward operating locations. DOD has responded to these
challenges with an array of initiatives on energy efficiency and renewable and
alternative fuels. Unfortunately, even with massive investment and ingenuity,
these initiatives will be insufficient to solve DOD’s reliance on the civilian grid
or its need for convoys in forward areas. The purpose of this paper is to explore
the prospects for addressing these critical vulnerabilities through small-scale