Joint Force Quarterly 116

Joint Force Quarterly 116

(1st Quarter, January 2025)

Risk in U.S. Strategy Formulation

  • Persuasion in Military Operations
  • Celtic Security in the Atlantic

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Large crowd converges into Saadallah al-Jabiri Square in Aleppo, Syria, on December 13, 2024, to mark overthrow of Syrian regime of Bashar
al-Asad by opposition forces headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Executive Summary

By William T. Eliason

As we go to press with this issue, Bashar al-Asad, one of the long-time dictators in the Middle East, has fled to Russia, and the Syrian people have risen to make that happen.


U.S. Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force - Crisis Response - Central Command, provide assistance during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, Aug. 20. U.S. service members are assisting the Department of State with an orderly drawdown of designated personnel in Afghanistan.

Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation

By Frank Hoffman

Risk is an enduring reality in strategic decisionmaking. The rigorous assessment of risk is—or should be—a critical step in strategy development.


Grable event, part of Operation Upshot-Knothole, involved 15-kiloton nuclear weapons test using M9 280-millimeter Artillery Fired Atomic Projectile fired from M65 Atomic Cannon, May 25, 1953, in Area 5 of Nevada Test Site

Preparing for Adversary Employment of Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: Tactical Effects, Operational Impacts, Strategic Implications

By James H. Gifford

For the past 30-plus years since the end of the Cold War, the Department of Defense has been able to operate with no real threat of nuclear weapons on the battlefield.


Sgt. Maj. Gregory Byrd, the operations sergeant major for the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 34th Red Bull Infantry Division, conducts mission analysis with a group of staff officers during annual training at Camp Ripley on April 12th, 2022. 

During their annual training period these staff officers are conducting mission analysis and course of action development to assist in the creation of a training plan and to form the required training itself. Their courses of action will supply subordinate battalions with the necessary information to create their own training plans, giving Soldiers at the lowest level a degree of predictability and stability in what to expect in the coming years.

Adopting a Data-Centric Mindset for Operational Planning

By Jeremiah Hurley and Morgan Greene

The Department of Defense (DOD) and its Service components are investing in advanced technologies to gain and maintain a competitive advantage over adversaries and pacing threats such as China and Russia.


General CQ Brown, Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, hosts Service Chiefs and Combatant Commanders for Strategic Seminar Series held at Defense Intelligence Agency Headquarters.

The Art of Campaigning: Joint Planners Working at the Intersections of Everything

By Mary Bell, Edgar M. Hollandsworth, Thomas J. Snukis, Jeffrey Turner, Luke P. Bellocchi, Nicholas Anthony, Steve Tribble, Chris Botterbusch, and Justin D. Harper

Understandably, there is quite a bit of confusion about the correct use of the military term campaigning.


U.S. Marine Corps Cpl. Jameson Dudley, left, crew master with Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252 (VMGR-252), and U.S. Army Sgt. Nijoku Odom, right, intelligence analyst with 303rd psychological operations company (303rd POCO), throw leaflets from a KC-130 Super Hercules over southern Afghanistan, Aug. 28, 2013. Leaflets were dropped in support of operations to defeat insurgency influence in the area. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Demetrius Munnerlyn/Released)

Being Believed: Persuasion and the Narrative in Military Operations

By Brent A. Lawniczak

To the renowned scholar Thomas Schelling, the central aspect of nuclear deterrence is being believed.


U.S. Army Soldiers from 3rd Battalion, 509th Parachute Infantry Regiment arrive at Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii, Oct. 7, 2024, during the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 25-1. The Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center (JPMRC) is the Army’s newest Combat Training Center (CTC) and generates readiness in the environments and conditions where our forces are most likely to operate in. JPMRC 25-01 includes training participants from across the U.S. Joint Force, and multinational Allies and partners.

The Urgency of Warfighting Renewal: Five Principles for Today’s Professional Military Education

By Christopher M. Marcell, Gaylon L. McAlpine, Reagan E. Schaupp, and Joseph L. Varuolo

When Secretary of Defense General James Mattis published the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), one statement in the summary companion document garnered great attention—and reaction—among the professional military education (PME) community: “PME has stagnated, focused more on the accomplishment of mandatory credit at the expense of lethality and ingenuity.”


Live fire exercise conducted by Irish Defence Forces Artillery School at Glen of Imaal range in County Wicklow, Ireland, March 15, 2023.

Celtic Security in the Atlantic: How Does Ireland Secure Europe’s Western Flank?

By Patrick J. Smith

In a moving speech to the Finnish parliament last summer, Speaker Matti Vanhanen warned that Russia will continue using “brutal military power on a large scale to pursue its own illusory goals.”


Chinese soldiers browse news on desktop computers at People’s Liberation Army garrison in Chongqing, China, November 14, 2013.

Is the PLA Overestimating the Potential of Artificial Intelligence?

By Koichiro Takagi

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is using artificial intelligence (AI) to build a world-class military.


Japanese soldiers in Russo-Japanese War, 1904–1905 (Sueddeutsche Zeitung/Alamy)

Determining Political Objectives

By Milan Vego

Political objectives are the key element of a grand or national/coalition security strategy.


Two B-1B Lancers assigned to Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, fly in formation above Gulf of Mexico, February 7, 2021 (U.S. Air Force/
Ryan C. Grossklag)

Updating the TACS/AAGS for Large-Scale Combat Operations

By Matthew Neuenswander

The Theater Air Control System (TACS)/Army Air-Ground System (AAGS) has been a staple of joint air-ground doctrine since May 1966, when General William Westmoreland, commander, U.S. Military Assistance Command, Vietnam, integrated the air and ground systems into the first joint air-ground operations system.


Sailors carry Intelligence Specialist 2nd Class Isaac Eaker, from La Jolla, California, assigned to intelligence department’s satellite imagery analyzation division, to an elevator on the flight deck during a medical drill aboard Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) while underway in the Pacific Ocean, Nov. 11, 2024. George Washington is 7th Fleet’s premier forward-deployed aircraft carrier, a long-standing symbol of the United States’ commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region, while operating alongside Allies and partners across the U.S. Navy’s largest numbered fleet.

Bullets, Bandages, and Fairy Dust: Improving DMO Health Services Support With Wargaming

By Debra D. Buckland-Coffey, Robert P. Gerbracht, Kengo Nishida, and William R. Gureck

Significant gaps in understanding persist across the joint and combined maritime enterprise when it comes to wargaming distributed maritime operations (DMO) and expeditionary advanced base operations (EABO) despite continued campaigns of learning.


Air Force Senior Airman Uchenna Ekwueme, 635th Materiel Maintenance Support Squadron cargo movement technician, processes inbound
shipment at Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, September 18, 2024 (U.S. Air Force/Nicholas Paczkowski)

It’s the Chain That Broke It: The Strategic Supply Chains Underpinning National Security

By Gregory M. Tomlin

In her address to the Eisenhower School student body at National Defense University in February 2024, Jennifer Santos, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Policy, stated that acquisition leaders can no longer afford to ignore the supply chain vulnerabilities of the industries contracted to provide materiel to the Department of Defense (DOD).


Statues of Greek historian Polybius and Goddess Athena in front of Parliament building in Austria, Vienna (Eye Ubiquitous/Alamy)

Polybian Warfare: The First Punic War as a Case Study in Strategic Competition and Joint Warfighting

By Casey B. Baker

The spring winds around Sicily had shifted during the day, but not before Praetor Quintus Valerius Falto had engaged the heavily laden Carthaginian fleet.


Cover of China's Use of Armed Coercion

China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting

By Ian Forsyth

One of the most vexing foreign policy challenges for U.S. analysts, warfighters, and policymakers is how to deal with China’s gray zone activities.


Cover of The Coming Wave

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma

By Peter Khooshabeh and Robert Underwood

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the 21 st Century’s Greatest Dilemma is an intriguing history of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SynBio) that also affords a lay reader a sense of the state of the art in both fields.


Cover of Weapons in Space

Weapons in Space: Technology, Politics, and the Rise and Fall of the Strategic Defense Initiative

By Todd W. Pennington

In Weapons in Space: Technology, Politics, and the Rise and Fall of the Strategic Defense Initiative, Aaron Bateman, assistant professor of history and international affairs at The George Washington University and a member of the university’s Space Policy Institute, distills recently declassified U.S., Soviet, and United Kingdom records to provide new insights into the origins, history, and legacy of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI).


Air Force 90th Fighter Squadron F-22 Raptor takes off from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, April 7, 2024, for exercise Agile Reaper 24-1
(U.S. Air Force/Patrick Sullivan)

The Future of Stealth Military Doctrine

By Theodoros G. Kostis

Stealth military doctrine specifies the use of antidetection technologies for the clandestine movement of friendly forces into unfriendly environments.