Key Points
• A failed People’s Republic of China (PRC) attempt to seize Taiwan would only be one step in a much longer conflict. Beijing will learn, rebuild, and may try again.
• Beijing would be more risk acceptant if its leaders face threats of removal. This could invite further escalation to quell domestic critics and reset battlefield conditions.
• In a post-invasion aftermath, deterrence must be quickly reestablished, but in such a way that does not imperil the PRC leadership’s survival.
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