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Executive Summary
States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organized crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organized crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to be seriously affected. Instead, ground has been lost politically, societally, and even territorially to armed gangs, cartels, and other illicit structures. The result is a steady erosion of the rule of law, of norms of sovereignty, of governance, and of human security.
This monograph is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organized crime. Its key contributions are twofold. First, it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organized crime. This lens helps situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context. It frames “threat actors” not as isolated problems but as symptoms of a socioeconomic-political system that must be understood and addressed. Treating legitimacy as the strategic center of gravity, irregular warfare focuses attention on the political drivers of illicit behavior, the contested narratives among the actors involved, and the need for a broader response than typically employed.
Second, we propose an analytical framework, designed for irregular warfare challenges, to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organized crime. This approach—the Framework for Analysis and Action—builds on an instructional method long used within the College of International Security Affairs at the U.S. National Defense University in Washington, DC, to prepare practitioners for insurgency, terrorism, and state-based subversion. It has proven utility, both in the classroom and in the field. Here, it is adapted specifically for organized crime, to guide the analysis and planning of those who are charged with responding to this challenge.
The Framework for Analysis and Action offers a sequence of prompts, informed by two decades of recent analytical experience with irregular warfare. It consists of two parts: the Strategic Estimate of the Situation (which maps the problem; explores its drivers, frames, and strategies; and critiques the current response) and the Course of Action (which uses the Strategic Estimate to design an appropriate strategy, with a theory of success, and an assessment of assumptions, legal authority, metrics, phasing, and risk mitigation). Based on a critical review of current practice, we contend that existing processes for analysis and action are currently weak—to the detriment of strategic effectiveness. Though an analytical framework is no panacea for the current crisis of strategy, it is an indispensable starting point for all that must follow.
To assist application of our framework to the problem of organized crime, this monograph walks through each section of the adapted approach. Throughout, reference is made to cases of organized crime to demonstrate the insight thus gained. An abbreviated “user’s guide” for the framework is included in Appendix A to facilitate its rapid employment.
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