About the Initiative

For the third year in a row, the French École de Guerre has had the great opportunity to work in close cooperation with PRISM. Six École de Guerre students completed research papers with the support of PRISM. The partnership has enhanced the ability of the officers in École de Guerre to understand key global issues and has further strengthened their ability to interact with American partners. 

 

Beyond Borders: PLA Command and Control of Overseas Operations

Strategic Forum 306 | July 28, 2020

Beyond Borders: PLA Command and Control of Overseas Operations

Phillip C. Saunders

China’s latest round of military reforms is driven primarily by Xi Jinping’s ambition to reshape the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to improve its ability to win informationized wars and to ensure that it remains loyal to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The reforms are unprecedented in their ambition and in the scale and scope of the organizational changes.

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Latin America 2020: Challenges to U.S. National Security Interests

Strategic Monograph | July 7, 2020

Latin America 2020: Challenges to U.S. National Security Interests

Craig A. Deare

U.S. national security interests in Latin America are undermined by three key threats: transnational criminal organizations, which exploit weak levels of governance across the majority of countries in the region; extra-regional actors, which fill the vacuum created by U.S. distraction and inattention to its neighborhood; and finally, a number of regional political actors embracing ideological positions opposed to open political systems and free markets, which undermine progress toward democratic governance and stability.

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Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare

Strategic Monograph | July 2, 2020

Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action

David H. Ucko and Thomas A. Marks

Based on the pedagogical approach of the College of International Security Affairs within the National Defense University, this article presents an analytical framework to assess and respond to irregular threats. Though terminological precision and analytical frameworks are no panacea for the malaise facing Western strategy, it is an indispensable starting point for all that must follow.

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System Overload: Can China’s Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan?

China Strategic Perspectives 15 | June 25, 2020

System Overload: Can China’s Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan?

Joel Wuthnow

In his 2019 New Year’s Day address, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping issued a stern warning to Taiwan: “We make no promise to abandon the use of force, and retain the option of taking all necessary measures.” At the same time, he warned that force could also be used to forestall “intervention by external forces,” referring to the United States. While designed to intimidate recalcitrant Taiwan and U.S. leaders—and appeal to domestic nationalists—rather than to signal an imminent confrontation, Xi’s comments underscored the very real military threats that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) poses to Taiwan. As the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency notes, Taiwan has been the “primary driver” of PLA modernization for decades, spurring the development of short- and long-range ballistic missiles, amphibious and airborne units, and other capabilities targeted at Taiwan and intervening U.S. forces. Those threats have become more worrisome as the PLA conducts large-scale exercises and provocative bomber flights around the island. The PLA’s improved warfighting capabilities have contributed to China’s near-term cross–Taiwan Strait objective—deterring Taiwan independence. Understanding the costs that a war would impose on the island, few but the most die-hard Taiwan independence activists have supported overt moves toward de jure independence.

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PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 (June 2020)

| June 12, 2020

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 (June 2020)

As the National Security and National Defense Strategies state, the world has entered a phase of great power competition in which the United States is confronted by a rising China and a resurgent Russia. PRISM V.8,N.4 offers perspective on this competition with articles by Sir Lawrence Freedman, the Honorable Joseph Nye, and the Honorable Andrew Natsios.

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Full Spectrum Dominance: Irregular Warfare and the War on Terror

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 | June 11, 2020

Full Spectrum Dominance: Irregular Warfare and the War on Terror

Bryce Loidolt

One might assume that a history of America’s 21st century turn to irregular warfare would have little to offer policymakers grappling with the challenge of great power competition. In Full Spectrum Dominance: Irregular Warfare and the War on Terror however, Maria Ryan offers a meticulous account not of how the United States might organize itself for futuristic high-tech warfare or geopolitical competition, but, rather, how it came to elevate a form of warfare that many U.S. defense planners and practitioners would prefer to view through the rear-view mirror. And yet, the lessons implied by Ryan’s impressive piece of scholarship should serve as a cautionary tale not just for practitioners seeking to ensure irregular warfare remains a “core competency” of the U.S. military, but also for those managing the tradeoffs and dilemmas of the contemporary strategic environment.

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Syrian refugees protest at the platform of Budapest Keleti railway station. Budapest, Hungary, Central Europe, 4 September 2015. (Mstyslav Chernov) Refugee flows from fragile states are overwhelming the capacity of destination states worldwide.

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 | June 11, 2020

Elite Incentives and Power Dynamics in Fragile States

Sarah Rose

By 2030, it is estimated that half of the world’s poor will be concentrated in fragile states. These are countries where the social contract between the government and its people is weak or absent—a breakdown which both creates a heightened risk of shocks from conflict, violence, pandemic illness, and/or natural disasters, and limits the country’s resilience to them. The increasing interlinkage between global development and state fragility, the potential cross-border nature of some of the risks, and the deeply mixed track record of successful international intervention to date, have prompted many donor organizations—including the United States—to reorient their policies and approaches to better support fragile states’ pathways to peace, stability, and resilience.

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Marshall Plan aid to Germany enabled that country to rise from the ashes of defeat, as symbolized by this worker in West Berlin. (U.S. National Archives)

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 | June 11, 2020

Foreign Aid in an Era of Great Power Competition

Andrew S. Natsios

Over the past decade the international political system has evolved into a state of great power rivalry in which the United States is challenged for international leadership by a rising China and a rapidly re-arming, revanchist Russia. A new militant nationalism is spreading across the globe; democracy appears to be in retreat as aggrieved populations turn to populist authoritarianism as a remedy. This rising political and strategic competition has now crossed over into the international development space.

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Defense Secretary James N. Mattis meets with China's Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe at the People's Liberation Army's Bayi Building in Beijing, June 28, 2018. (DoD photo by Army Sgt. Amber I. Smith)

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 | June 11, 2020

Perspectives for a China Strategy

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

When the Munich Security Conference met in February 2020, China was the most frequently mentioned country, while there was an exaggerated mood of Western decline. Yet as the recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown, China has both strengths and weaknesses. Its initial censorship, suppression of feedback and curtailment of international information allowed the pandemic to develop and fester. Draconian quarantine of Wuhan curtailed its spread somewhat; followed by a government propaganda campaign to attract others to the theme that China’s behavior had been benign. When the pandemic eventually subsides, however, China will be faced with the political and economic costs resulting from the exposure of both a failed public health system and an overly rigid party control system.

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The world is caught up in an existential struggle. COVID-19 has paralyzed the global economy, shut down international travel, and killed hundreds of thousands around the world.

PRISM Vol. 8, No. 4 | June 11, 2020

COVID-19: The Pandemic and its Impact on Security Policy

Matthias Rogg

The world is caught up in an existential struggle. The opponent is intangible; it spares neither state nor social group and does not stop at any border. For many of us, this struggle feels like war. Indeed, with the growing use of war-like language in the fight against COVID-19, also called coronavirus, a rapidly rising number of victims, and last but not least the economic consequences which are becoming increasingly clear, we seem to be experiencing a war-like situation.

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